Final Poll Update - 7 P.M. Final Night
Welcome to our final update for this series of Big Brother. A sincere thank you goes out to all those that have participated in our surveys this series, we hope you have enjoyed being part of correctly predicting each eviction so far.
Let's see if we can do it just one more time..
As you are all probably aware, we have been running three polls to gauge how you have been voting during the week, and how you intend to vote tonight.
The first survey began on saturday morning and has had nearly 1,300 responses. This is how you told us you would be voting:Details of how this poll has evolved during the week have been well documented on previous posts.
On Wednesday afternoon we began a new midweek poll in order to gauge more recent trends in voting behaviour. This survey has been running for two days and has had 332 responses, which reflected the growing support for Aisleyne that we were seeing in the cumulative poll.
Today, we launched our Finals Night survey, which aimed to capture not only overall voting trends, but multi-voting and tactical voting trends as well. The headline figures showed that Aisleyne's strength has continued to improve into today.
Of the 199 responses we have had today, 44.6% had already voted, and this is how:
In Big Brother 5, 60.5% of the total votes cast had been placed at the time of the first eviction the final evening. This ties in broadly with what we are seeing, as 25% of respondents intend voting this evening, along with 33% who said they had already voted, but will be voting again tonight.
In terms of multi-voting, we asked you to tell us exactly how many times you intended to vote for your favourite housemate. Using this data, after removing outliers, we can calculate an "average number of votes per fan" for each housemate:
We asked you if you would switch allegences should your first choice housemate be evicted this evening. This is what you told us:
Looking at the overall voting data, it would appear that the final three will be Aisleyne, Glyn and Pete. In order to see where the tactical voting would go in this situation, we asked exactly that question:
The viewing figures of tonights show will be double that of a normal eviction friday. We have been asked a lot of questions about how these extra viewers will affect voting behaviour on the final night. Our track record shows that our polling group has a high degree of accuracy when it comes to Friday night evictions. We have less experience in running final night polls than we do in eviction night polls. There is a risk that our polling methods do not capture the effect of the more casual viewer tuning in tonight and deciding to vote for the first time, and this should be noted by those that follow our analysis.
And so there you have it. In the overall vote, incorporating both multi-voting and tactical voting (and not even factoring in the "complacency" effect that is 72% of respondents thinking that Pete will win tonight), our polls comtinue to tell us the Aisleyne will be crowned this evening.
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