Friday, August 18, 2006

Final Poll Update - 7 P.M. Final Night

Welcome to our final update for this series of Big Brother. A sincere thank you goes out to all those that have participated in our surveys this series, we hope you have enjoyed being part of correctly predicting each eviction so far.

Let's see if we can do it just one more time..

As you are all probably aware, we have been running three polls to gauge how you have been voting during the week, and how you intend to vote tonight.

The first survey began on saturday morning and has had nearly 1,300 responses. This is how you told us you would be voting:

Details of how this poll has evolved during the week have been well documented on previous posts.

On Wednesday afternoon we began a new midweek poll in order to gauge more recent trends in voting behaviour. This survey has been running for two days and has had 332 responses, which reflected the growing support for Aisleyne that we were seeing in the cumulative poll.


Today, we launched our Finals Night survey, which aimed to capture not only overall voting trends, but multi-voting and tactical voting trends as well. The headline figures showed that Aisleyne's strength has continued to improve into today.

Of the 199 responses we have had today, 44.6% had already voted, and this is how:

In Big Brother 5, 60.5% of the total votes cast had been placed at the time of the first eviction the final evening. This ties in broadly with what we are seeing, as 25% of respondents intend voting this evening, along with 33% who said they had already voted, but will be voting again tonight.

Multi-Voting.

In terms of multi-voting, we asked you to tell us exactly how many times you intended to vote for your favourite housemate. Using this data, after removing outliers, we can calculate an "average number of votes per fan" for each housemate:

Nikki 9.8
Glyn 6.1
Aisleyne 5.5
Pete 4.4
Richard 3.8

Tactical Voting.

We asked you if you would switch allegences should your first choice housemate be evicted this evening. This is what you told us:

Looking at the overall voting data, it would appear that the final three will be Aisleyne, Glyn and Pete. In order to see where the tactical voting would go in this situation, we asked exactly that question:

The viewing figures of tonights show will be double that of a normal eviction friday. We have been asked a lot of questions about how these extra viewers will affect voting behaviour on the final night. Our track record shows that our polling group has a high degree of accuracy when it comes to Friday night evictions. We have less experience in running final night polls than we do in eviction night polls. There is a risk that our polling methods do not capture the effect of the more casual viewer tuning in tonight and deciding to vote for the first time, and this should be noted by those that follow our analysis.

And so there you have it. In the overall vote, incorporating both multi-voting and tactical voting (and not even factoring in the "complacency" effect that is 72% of respondents thinking that Pete will win tonight), our polls comtinue to tell us the Aisleyne will be crowned this evening.

Good Luck!

The Special Bets Team


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7 Comments:

Blogger zoomraker said...

Thanks Special Bets

7:18 PM  
Blogger thomasthetanker said...

If you pull this off we'll be telling our grandchildren about it.

Whatever the result, thanks.

Good luck to us all (Except Pete backers!!!!)

7:22 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Thanks guys.

Don't think for one second that this hasn't been an emotional week for everybody here.

Good luck to you both too.

7:37 PM  
Blogger mills427 said...

Could it be that Aisleyne voters are not only more likely to vote multiple times for her, but are also far more likely to respond to your survey than fans of other housemates? Just a thought.


Good luck with your prediction tonight and thanks for your work throughout the series.

7:42 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Hi Mills "Could it be that Aisleyne voters are not only more likely to vote multiple times for her, but are also far more likely to respond to your survey than fans of other housemates? Just a thought."

Yes that's a valid point. But Aisleyne's strong and active support is also the key reason we think she will win big brother. They are more likely to respond to our poll and also more likely to vote in the real poll.

7:48 PM  
Blogger mickmercer said...

Please don't even bother next year. You have been so wide of the mark for the final you either need to scrap your poll audience and start again or simply quit.

Thanks.

9:35 PM  
Blogger maloolaboo said...

Great run of eviction predictions and your %age calls were mostly pretty accurate. However, it didn’t take a blind man to see how your potential winners polls (from way back) was skewed with an over representation of Aisleyne supporters bordering on the DS level. When you published your "who do you like poll" back when there were 11 housemates (added HND housemates)…

.............First….....Second choice
Pete.........56% (208) 22% (80)
Aisleyne.....30% (78)..30% (78)

…the warning signs were all there of how your final poll might look when Aisleyne's fan support was clearly in single figures elsewhere. The population of your poll, Aisleyne support heavy or not, would always have been able to predict evictions just as well as any other poll on the net and many people did make money using your poll.

It is unfortunate that through inexperience or exuberance, you chose to comment so one-sidedly and pedantically on your winner’s poll results and to bullishly push your findings that were so obviously out of line with other respected polls. In a sensitive market and particularly so near the end of the show, your publications had a profound effect on the market and caused considerable confusion and readjustment.

Whilst some astute judges decided to not place sole reliance on your winner’s poll results, other smaller fish got well and truly fried.

On a positive note, Statman’s charts and unique diagrams were much appreciated and his dedication to his art is admirable.

2:18 PM  

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