Final Results Of The Special Bets 7th Eviction Poll;

Well this won't be much of a surprise to you as to who we think is going tonight.

For the 7th time in a row the Friday eviction seems obvious (at least in terms of who will be leaving tonight).

Of 740 unique responders, 87% of you think that Lea will be evicted tonight.

Asking all responders; Who would you most like to see evicted from the Big Brother House? We get a figure of 73.2% for Lea.

When we weight the same question toward those who are most likely to vote, we come up with a figure of 75.5% for Lea.

Other online polls have Lea's % much lower - Big Brother Online has Lea with only 65% currently - and this is reflected in the evicted % market on Betfair.

We're not sure why we're so much higher - It will be interesting to see the final figures.

Best, Special Bets.

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The 7th Big Brother Eviction Poll - Half Time Scores;

To our survey group, Friday's eviction has the air of predictability about it..

87.6% of you think that Lea is going this week... but are you right?

Well, sadly there seems to be little controversy in store this week.

Asking ALL responders (and we'll filter this for you by Friday when we hope to have a good 1000 responses) whom they would like to see evicted the figure is 14% less, but still shows Lea hot favourite to go.. We can learn from this however that Richard is picking up eviction votes even when the almost universally disliked Lea is the only other opposition - Richard clearly remains one of the most unpopular members of the house with the public.

We'll be back tomorrow with an update..

On a blogging note, we've just reviewed our web traffic growth since Special Bets' inception in Q4 last year and are quite pleased with the findings. Almost 25,000 people viewed the blog from April-June, up from 13,000 in the prior period and 9,000 in our first quarter.

The winner of this week's "What should Oxford Uni Maths Grad Statman's Slogan be?" Competition was DAN with "Le Geek, c'est Chic" - which tickled us..

We'd also like to mention Special Bets Blog poster "Myfanwy" who said to Statman on the Blog "I love it when men talk stats at me [swoon] "

Myfanwy, if you knew about circumstances surrounding the court order CAROL VORDERMAN had to get when she only so much as smiled at Statto - you'd be more careful!

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The Threat To Pete From The New Housemates;

Whilst it would appear that second-favourite Nikki is currently the main threat to Pete, there are some interesting insights thrown up by the most recent survey.

We can split the current Pete supporters into "hardcore" (those who are not giving the new housemates a chance) and, I guess, "softcore" (those who deem it too early to tell whether Pete is still their No.1).

At the moment our current poll shows that Pete has a 41.3% popularity rating.

Two thirds of these are hardcore Pete fans, with the other third being softcore.

The worst case scenario possible for Pete would be that one of the new housemates gains momentum causing all of the softcore fans and a small amount (say 15%) of the hardcore fans to defect. Let's call this new housemate "Newbie". In this extreme example, the poll would look as follows:

Pete 23.6%

Newbie 20.0%

So Pete cannot be defeated at the moment by defectors alone. The problem is, that if a new housemate were to garner such momentum in support from current Pete fans, the likelihood is that this newbie would also capture other softcore voters from other housemates. Without needing to do any sums, it's obvious that in this scenario Pete can be de-throned.

All of this assumes a drastic shift in sentiment to one of the newbies, and Pete can rest assured that barring this, it looks like the only serious challenge can come from Nikki.

Of course, she doesn't have the benefit of being a newbie and people's opinions will likely be a little more "Sticky". However, just for the record, should Nikki continue to charm the nation's voters with her outbursts, she may win over the sofcore Pete fans, making the poll look like this:

Pete 27.7%

Nikki 34.8%

So is Pete's lead impressive? Yes.

Is it impassable? Not yet.

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How To Get Thrown Out Of Big Brother - #1 - The "Turkey Slap"

You've heard so much about the "incident", "sexual assault" or just plain "Turkey Slap" that got 2 Australian Big Brother contestants thrown out of the house and prompted the Aussie PM to ban the show that we've decided to set the record straight and show you what really happened! No crime was committed here - poor taste maybe (judge for yourself), but hardly a reason for an international scandal!

Special Bets is hoping Statman doesn't get any "ideas" though...ewww

In this clip, the female housemate involved - Camilla - speaks - calling the incident "a bit of fun" while the evicted housemates are interviewed;

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First Look At The Results Of Our "New Housemates" Poll;

You've only known the new housemates for a few days now but we are interested in hearing about your first impressions. Don't miss Statman's interpretation of the data - here it is so far;

You don't seem very enthusiastic about the new arrivals, but 53% of you will give then the benefit of the doubt - you're a nice bunch really!

Spiral is a slight favourite but there's not much between 4 housemates. Only Jayne is notably not liked;

and disliked;

Some of you say the new HMs have changed you personal views on the winner;

Which adds up roughly to the same % of you that have chosen a new favourite Housemate;

Our conclusion at the moment in terms of the "To Win" market is that the new
housemates do not currently represent a credible threat to Pete's chances of
winning the show although its clearly VERY early and half of you are reserving your judgement. The key threat to Pete still seems to be Nikki, who's excellent performance skills (as Pete's have) have made the show's producers keen to devote large parts of the highlights show to her monologues.

Nikki vs Pete - (Special Bets Blog Polls);



Who is your favourite remaining Big Brother contestant? - Nikki (All responders)

Week 1 - 6.6%
Week 2 - 10.6%
Week 3 - 7%
Week 4 - 10.9%
Week 5 - 22%
Week 6 - 23.4%
Week 7 - 21.2%

So, Nikki has been at 20% type levels for a couple of weeks, reaching highs last Friday and now polling slightly less.

Pete is currently scoring 41.3% of the vote, and this has been fairly stable for the last few weeks.

Nikki and Pete are also popular second favourites.

68.5% of responders have Pete as their first or second HM
42.6% of responders have Nikki as their first or second HM

Pete's peak popularity was sometimes at high 60% levels before fading and stabilising in the mid-low 40% - Nikki's danger is that her highly amusing monologues also lose their peak lustre but from lower popularity levels than Pete.

We're watching closely but nothing in the data suggests Pete is a lay - although Nikki should most likely be lower than her recent 7 (6-1) price and "any other " and Glyn should be much higher.

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