Saturday, July 01, 2006

Big Brother's 4s Ray On New BB Housemate "Spiral"

Friday, June 30, 2006

Aisleyne Moves To The New House With Only 67% Of The Vote;

Aisleyne moves to the new house as we predicted but with only 67% of the vote?

This is much lower that any online poll we've seen - including our own. Take the usually reliable Big Brother Online poll as an example..

We've not been this far wrong - 12% versus the survey group's voters- since Barrymore in the CBB final and as was discussed with Barrymore's mysterious late popularity - could there have been vote rigging?

We know there was definitely some rigging, one of the smart forumites on the Betfair forum voted 1,600 times for Suzie in an effort to make money betting on Suzie to be the one that moved- and tonight's likely low vote turnout made this easier. Was this rigging more widespread than we thought?

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The Special Bets Big Brother Eviction Prediction!

Sorry we're so late with tonight's prediction but it was JessicaInDublin's birthday! So; better late than never!
Now, first things are first. Aisleyne will be evicted from the house tonight and will join new housemates Jennie, Jayne, Glen, Michael and Jonathan.

But what about the eviction % ?

Well - this eviction is a positive vote unlike usual BB evictions which are clear negative votes - "Who Do You Want To Evict".

Tonight's poll is really a "Who Do You Like Best" situation (although its possible that some BB viewers would like to send Suzie into the other house despite liking her the least).

In our poll this week, we've made it VERY clear what's happening tonight so other online polls may be different as they do not to the same extent (bear this in mind). With all that said, here's the data since Tuesday;


All Responders - 83.1% Aisleyne

Removing Responders Who Say They Will Not Vote - 81.9% Aisleyne


Only those who have already voted or intend to vote - 79% Aisleyne



So, what's our actual prediction? Well this is a tough one. We're going to make a bit of a "hunch" call. Based on the data that we have, we view Suzie as a none entity with no fans - we can't see people picking up the phone to reward her, even if a voter doesn't like Aisleyne.

We believe that Davina will make the rules for tonight's eviction very clear to viewers as we have, and this will mean a vote % over 80% as those that like Aisleyne seek to reward her. We reckon that the vote turnout is currently very low and the real vote is something like 75-78% in favour of Aisleyne - we think there will be a swing in favour of Aisleyne - Let's take a guess and say 83% :) Most polls have Aisleyne in the low 70's - let's see who's closest!

If you are prudent - you should not touch the under over 80% market on Betfair, but we're going to have a go at the over 80% - just to keep it interesting!

Keep checking back on the blog tonight, we're going to ask our group what they think of our new housemates and will publish tonight if we have a meaningful sample size.

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Meet The New Housemates!


Jennie Conner - an 18 year old from Crewe

Jayne Kitt - 37, a single mum of an 11 year old daughter from Slough, who likes getting naked when she isn't recruiting people into jobs.

Glen Coranor - DJ Spiral, 22, from Dublin, a tee totaller.

Michael Cheshire - 23 year old gay man originally from Oldham, now lives in London.

Jonathan Leonard - 24 year old bouncer originally from Cumbria, now lives in Newcastle.

Keep it here for more details!

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Big Brother's Pete In The Tabloids - How Has Pete's Recent Tabloid Coverage Affected Your View Of Him?

The Daily Mirror on Wednesday in this article quoting "friends" of Pete discussed Pete's experimentation with (what was a legal drug at the time) Ketamine - and his snorting of overly large amounts of the horse tranquiliser during a troubling time in his life 2 years ago.

We wondered what you, the Big Brother voting public thought of the the whole business and whether coverage such as this is likely to affect Pete's popularity and chances of winning the show - here's what 368 of you told us..




So, 79% of you were entirely unmoved by this story in the Mirror, and most of the "other" answers were supportive, some answers were;

"I like Pete not due to the fact that he took drugs but because he's got past it and turned himself around" " I don't believe what I read in the papers" " I will reserve judgement till i hear it from Pete himself, not from his so called friends" and " never really took to him anyway"


We then tried to dig deeper into the answers you gave - here's a summary;



"Another reason" answers were; " It just goes to show that he's not as solid and sound a person as everyone thinks" and " Don't Like Him or His Behaviour"



"Another Reason" answers were; " Everyone does things like this sometimes, but the key is he has learned and moved on" " His heart is in the right place. Past drug use in difficult times is irrelevant" " He has suffered a lot through his life, everyone makes mistakes and he has clearly turned things around for the better."

So in summary, there's a lot of sympathy and good feeling out there towards Pete, and you the BB watching public seem very able to adopt a "forgiving attitude" to attempts in the press to write sensational article about the housemates.

We also suspect that as with the Kate Moss affair - (Kate actually getting more more modelling work after her cocaine-related "scandal") the British public really aren't judgmental about drugs any more in the main..

We asked the "Who do you want to win" question at the end, with Pete scoring 48.6% of all voters - we will show this figure on a weighted basis later today.

This compares to 46.2% of all voters saying they wanted Pete to win in our current eviction poll - so the impact of these types of articles seems limited in terms of their ability to sway public opinion in our view...



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Wednesday, June 28, 2006

We're running 2 Big Brother polls today;

Happy Wednesday poll watchers. We're running 2 polls this week - our usual Big

Brother Eviction Survey for Friday's fake eviction and we also thought we'd have a look at the impact of the Mirror's story on Pete today regarding his past drug use/abuse. We'll publish preliminary findings from both.

Sunday, June 25, 2006

Reports Of 5 Australian Housemates Joining The House Wishful Thinking?

Special Bets have been in contact with Chris Freeman from the good-looking "Mad For Big Brother" fansite about their report of 5 Aussie housemates joining the new part of the BB house on Friday.

Disappointingly - this is only a hunch from Chris based on Davina's "everybody needs good neighbours" line and not based on confirmed information..but we' be monitoring the situation cobbers. Strewth! etc...