Elimination Speculation - Calculating Fair Odds;
Acts that have up to 10.6% core support in the polls and sing badly on the night can find themselves in the bottom 2.
Acts whose core support is ranked at 7th or below (or lets say "bottom quartile" as the numbers dwindle) can find themselves in the bottom 2 even if they sing well on the night
Bearing these facts in mind, let's take a look at the current polling landscape:
Looking at the poll of polls, we find The MacDonald Brothers toward the bottom of the table again, albeit with a slightly better showing at The Internet Forum and DigiSpy.
We also see Robert fitting perfectly into a "category 2" act, and given that he has already been beaten by The Macdonald Brothers in a previous show, he is looking vunerable again this evening.
How can we account for the remainder of the acts? In previous weeks acts above 5.6% in the polls tend to need to have a bad song to make it into the bottom two, but that was with a lot more sub 5.6% acts in the competition.
The bottom line is that we can't be sure that Nikitta, Ray, and Ashley are safe. We can make the assumption that Ben, Leona and Eton Road are safe however, without stretching the bounds of reason.
This leaves us with five acts, and hence ten possible bottom two pairings. Let's assume that each of these pairings is equally likely to be the bottom two (i.e. 10% chance). We can then say, assuming that each pairing turns out to be the bottom two, who is likely to survive? This is where we can factor in information such as The Macdonald Brothers almost certainly being beaten by all four of the other acts should they make the bottom two. Other pairings are harder to call, and hence are 50/50, but here is a screenshot from a model we have been developing that can help us to quantify our views. The opinions represented in the left-hand column are Statman's own .
As you can see, I have allocated a 5% probability that the MacDonald Brothers will survive against any other act should they wind up in the bottom two this evening. Other pairings can also be seen, and you can see for example that in the scenario Nikitta vs Ashley, I have allocated a 20% probability that Nikkita would survive. The right hand column shows that I have allocated an equal probability of 10% that each pairing does actually turn out to be the bottom two.
Using these assumptions, the model tells us the following:
The result above is only important to me because I believe my input probabilities are sensible, and as such I can use these results to find value in the betting exchanges according to my assumptions.
If you don't believe my probabilities are reasonable, then please feel free to suggest alternatives, because I understand that each gambler will have different subjective inputs.
The model was devised to be a tool to help readers find value, rather than display a set of odds that I personally think is superior, so please feel free to send your probabilities to me.