Christmas Top TV Programme Market- Update;

UPDATE - We've asked our friends at Paddy Power to keep this market open as long as possible and they've duly obliged - will be open until 10pm Christmas Eve. The prices on Against The Crowd's original article are now a little out of date but we attach his original thoughts. Eastenders has remained the clear favourite, with Doctor Who still looking like an interesting outside chance.

Special Bets Wishes you all a very happy Christmas, don't forget about our new odds comparison site which should be of help getting you best prices over Christmas.

Best, Special Bets.

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Special Bets is proud to announce the inaugural guest spot of "specials" expert "AgainstTheCrowd".
A Special bettor for many years, AgainstTheCrowd's recent tipping of Maria Lawson to be eliminated from X Factor (at odds of 40/1!) and Carol Thatcher to win "I'm A Celebrity" (12/1) earned him the acclaim of the Racing Post.
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AgainstTheCrowd

Those of you who find the lack of a bet on Christmas Day difficult to handle are in luck this year. Bookmakers are taking bets on the ‘Top TV Programme ’ the show that has the highest UK Viewing figures on Christmas Day Settled in accordance with BARB UK.

Main contenders are the ‘soaps’ Eastenders and Coronation Street..& the Dr. Who Christmas Special "Christmas Invasion"

Paddy Power are running a comprehensive book and are best priced on 2 of the main contenders. I feel Dr.Who - 'Christmas Invasion' at 9/2 is the best value at present. It has the combination of a seasonal theme, a new Dr. Who, and relatively weak schedule opposition in ‘Millionaire ‘Celebrity Special’.

Add to that, good viewing figures in its spring season and the fact that at heart, every generation loves it we could have a runaway success.

The professionals have already moved in on Eastenders which has a genuine favourite’s chance at odds on with the same firm. The major ITV soap Coronation Street is thus available at a generous looking and biggest available 9/4.

Those looking for a shock might consider the ‘other soap’ Emmerdale at 33/1 or Only Fools’ spin off ‘The Green Green Grass’ at bigger odds…

Click here; for the top TV market.

Good Luck!

AgainstTheCrowd
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Paddy Power have a huge selection of Special Bets, our favourite is "Cruise The Daddy" full selection available here;

Christmas Number One - Wednesday's Sales - Fat Lady Singing..

Shayne Ward - 313k (including 46,000+ Downloads)
Nizlopi's JCB Song - 80k
Pogues - Fairytale Of New York - 24k

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Christmas Number One - A source tells us that;

Shayne Ward's "That's My Goal" has sold around 300,000 copies including downloads... we'll be back with details...

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Christmas Number One - Retailers Pushing X Factor;

Special Bets just spoke with HMV who appear to be singing from the same hymnsheet as Woolworths and told us effectively what's in this news story The "150,000" projection is for the whole industry and is based on the first 4 hours of sales today at HMV accounting for their market share. The person at HMV we spoke to seemed unsure as to whether this was inclusive or exclusive of the 46,000 downloads Sky News reported. The person we spoke with also said "That's My Goal" was outselling JCB "2-1" or 100%. Our own Oxford Street check at 3pm suggested a 30% outselling figure. All will be clear tomorrow but one thing seems sure - the record shops have a huge investment in Shayne Ward and they want a return. "That's My Goal" is being heavily promoted in stores that have agreed to accept such a large amount of pre-sales.
Special Bets.

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UK Christmas Chart - Sales Update;

Wednesday Sales Update - HMV Oxford Street checked their computer for Special Bets. HMV say that TODAY at HMV "That's My Goal" is outselling JCB by 30%. Special Bets is surprised that the difference is not greater as this is the first day "That's My Goal" has been available - so there should be a lot of "Pent Up" demand. The JCB Song is still outselling "That's My Goal" today on Itunes who have a 50% share of the UK download market.

Cummulative numbers; Sun - Tues;

Singles
1 NIZLOPI 55,063
2 POGUES 17,538
3 WESTLIFE FT DIANA ROSS 13,168
4 EMINEM 10,725
5 PUSSYCAT DOLLS 10,163
6 CRAZY FROG 9,863
7 MADONNA 9,391
8 COLDPLAY 9,374
9 GIRLS ALOUD 9,286
10 JAMES BLUNT 7,686

Albums
1 Eminem 110,000
2 Robbie 87,000
3 J Blunt

Hat Tip to Andy @ Haven

Analysis- what does this mean?

According to Sky News, Shayne Ward's "That's My Goal" has had 46,000 downloads ahead of his release today. So Nizlopi run into today with a small (9000) lead in sales.
Shayne will undoubtably take a significant lead after his release today, but the Nizlopi sales are certainly very healthy and perhaps still growing on a daily basis -22,241 in a day assuming no further growth would mean a weekly total of 143,964 - good but probably not good enough to catch the X Factor who look like getting around 200,000 by week end. We would need to see significant growth tomorrow for catching X Factor to be a remote possibility. Special Bets.

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Christmas Number One - Midweeks Data - JCB Song 32k in Sales Monday;

Monday Singles Sales;
1 NIZLOPI JCB SONG 32,759
2 POGUES FAIRYTALE OF NEW YORK 10,183
3 WESTLIFE FT DIANA ROSS WHEN YOU TELL ME THAT YOU LOVE ME 8,208
4 PUSSYCAT DOLLS STICKWITU 6,285
5 CRAZY FROG JINGLE BELLS/U CAN'T TOUCH THIS 6,065
6 MADONNA HUNG UP 5,880
7 EMINEM WHEN I'M GONE 5,571
8 GIRLS ALOUD SEE THE DAY 5,398
9 COLDPLAY TALK 4,555
10 JAMES BLUNT GOODBYE MY LOVER 4,347

JCB Song - There are suggestions that this will result in a total sales figure for the week of 135k - 150k in total (vs just over 80,000 last week)

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Christmas Number 1 2005 - All About The Downloads.

UPDATES 20/12 *"That's My Goal" is now available on ITUNES (54% share of download market). *Daily Mirror run article suggesting X Factor voters are receiving unsolicited text messages to buy the song. *Digitalspy poster recalls "That's My Goal" as a song originally rejected by Westlife in 2003.



Special Bets read the press release from the British Phonographic Industry today with interest.

BPI spokesman Matt Phillips said: "Because Christmas singles make perfect stocking fillers, the final week of the year always sees a massive boom in sales." "Although you can't put a download under the tree, seven out of ten singles are sold as downloads and they are going to play a significant part in deciding this year's Christmas Number One."

Of Course, Simon Cowell's Sony/BMG Music know this only too well and heavily promoted Shayne Ward's "That's My Goal" download (available only through 7 Digital Media) ahead of the Wednesday physical release. The Daily Star today suggested there were 25,000 downloads on Saturday night - a figure Simon Cowell claims is "record breaking" but still only represents 2% of the show's peak viewing figure.

The Official UK Chart Company is not clear on its website as to whether these sales will count given its stated rules; * Digital Singles without a physical variant will not be eligible *Digital variants of a physical single will be eligible for Chart at the point the physical formats are released.

*HOWEVER Special Bets have been contacted by the official chart company and can confirm that download sales of "That's My Goal" before Wednesday will count toward the Christmas chart. The UK official chart's automated systems actually work on the week of release (rather than actual day) so any downloads occurring in the same week as the release date of the physical product will count.

Other potential Christmas Number One contenders "Fairytale Of New York" and Nizlopi's "The JCB Song" are also available through 7 Digital Media - but unlike "That's My Goal" through the other download sites such as ITunes and Napster as well.

Its is not currently possible to download Shayne Ward's "That's My Goal" through the usual channels - such as Apple's ITUNES. ITUNES's two top selling products currently are the Nizlopi JCB Single and the Nizlopi album. Xtn research, based on a late September survey of more than 1,000 British consumers who buy music online and offline, puts ITUNES' UK market share at 54 per cent.

Monday's Top Downloads, ITUNES (does not include X Factor)

Singles

#1 JCB Song (single)
#2 All I want For Christmas (Mariah Carey)
#3 FairyTale OF New York (The Pogues And Kirsty Mcoll)
#11 JCB Song (Radio Mix)
#15 JCB Song (other format)
#19 JCB Song (EP)

Today's Top Albums;
1) Half These Songs Are About You (Nizlopi)
2 JCB Single - Nizlopi - is this the EP again?
3) Confessions on a Dancefloor (Madonna)
4) Demon Days Gorrilaz

We're assuming that the X Factor Turkey Juggernaut will run over the JCB Song for Christmas Number one this year but given the above data we think the race is far from over and Nizlopi may be worth a cheeky bet at current levels. We'll keep you updated on sales trends to try to get a better grip on what seems now a small probability.

PS, The good people at the UK official charts also reminded us that the "UK Official Download Chart" announced this coming Wednesday is based on the previous Sat Midnight - Sat Midnight sales. The period 11th December to the 17th. Therefore the "That's My Goal" sales won't affect the download chart until the one published on Wednesday 28th December.

Current Odds At; Paddy Power;

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