Monday, August 14, 2006

Winner's Poll Update - 9.30 P.M. Monday 14th August

After 889 responses, Pete's lead has now been eroded to just 2.1% over the life of the poll, which was started first thing Saturday morning.

Aisleyne continues to poll slightly better than Pete in more recent voting, which is summed up quite nicely in the table below:


Can Aisleyne close the gap before Friday? The last time I made a prediction it failed to come true, hence I will simply say that it is obviously possible so long as she maintains these sorts of voting levels from here on in.

I also personally find it useful to look at the Probability of Leading. This is a statistic which aims to measure how likely is it that Pete is actually leading the voting in the general population, given the results of our poll.

The Probability of Pete Leading right now turns out to be 80%, with Aisleyne making up the complimentary 20%. Hence the theoretical "fair price" odds for Pete winning the actual vote right now is 1.26, and Aisleyne 4.9.

Of course, the Probability of Leading will change should the underlying data trends change.

For consistency, here is the updated chart showing Rolling 60-vote percentages (clicky for bigger)

Stay tuned.

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9 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder whether it's because of the rumours of strong early voting for Aisleyne or a revolt at the biased anti-Aisleyne editing and spin.

I don't think you can reject the anti-twist vote either.

Whatever the score Aisleyne is definitely a now a major contender and it makes for an exciting finale.

11:50 PM  
Anonymous Jamandell (d69) said...

I'm having my fingers crossed...I really REALLY hope Aisleyne can win.

11:57 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

http://static.sky.com/images/pictures/1437569.jpg

- Look like the already pro-Ais Daily Mirror are joining "Team Ash" !

12:22 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aisleyne deserves to win! Love your blog, hun and thanks for the link. Keep up the great work :)

12:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For those listing Aisleyne as their 'second favourite' housemate is your earlier poll, can you inform us (percentage wise) of who their favouritie housemates are? Is seems she has a lot of second favourite support, but I'm left wondering who it is from.

It seems to me that her overall success or failure could be altered quite radically depending on who is voted out before her, unless she has second favourite support across the board of course. I suppose we can assume that Jenny will be out first, then possibly Richard or Nikki. Depending on the order they are voted out, I believe this could be a good indicator as to influence our in-play betting actions.

BigMouth

3:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just to expand and simply my previous point:

1)Do you think it at all likely that fans of Richard, Nikki and Jenny combined could vote for Glyn in sufficient numbers to endanger Aisleynes second place?

2) If Glyn goes out third, what percentage of his fans have Pete as their second favourite choice (and intend to vote) as opposed to to Aislyne.

This could be a very important factor surely?

12:07 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

q) Do you think it at all likely that fans of Richard, Nikki and Jenny combined could vote for Glyn in sufficient numbers to endanger Aisleynes second place?

Jennie has no fans to speak of. Richard fans are typically also fans of Ais and Pete. I'll give you some hard figures tonight based on filters of the tactical voting questions ok?

q2) If Glyn goes out third, what percentage of his fans have Pete as their second favourite choice (and intend to vote) as opposed to to Aislyne.

47% of Glyn fans say they would not vote again if he leaves. 29% will, 23% might. They would consider voting for; Pete 34.3% Ais 24% Ric 18.6% Nik 15.7%

Hope that helps. We'll put something decent together on tactical voting later on - its definitely going to have an effect.

1:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks very much

BigMouth

2:43 PM  
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3:25 AM  

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