Suzie - Addicted To Love?

We'd love it if we could see the real Suzie.

Quite an interesting character is our Suzie - she's invented what we'd call a reverse Big Brother persona. The usual form in BB is that boring people with little to say pretend to be the opposite of their true self in an effort to be liked - take the 1 dimensional "Bonnie" as a good example.

Suzie however seems to be pretending to be as boring and, well staid as possible, and HMs seem to have not realised.

Suzie is termed boring to the likes of Glyn and Jennie as they take Suzie's chosen character - the hausfrau as read. However Suzie, a working stripper clearly has a lot of interesting stories to tell. We've seen Suzie baring all in a music video before, but did we realise that we've all seen her before?!

Take a look at the late, great Robert Palmer's famous "Addicted To Love" video below.

Suzie can be found miming on the keyboard - take a close look about half way through for a close up of a small-breasted Suzie, in her early 20's looking rather sexy..

Thanks again to all of you responding to our eviction polls, we've predicted the evictee correctly in an unbroken run this series, with less than 1% deviation from the actual poll figure a few times..

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a message to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

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Jayne or Richard - Who Goes And What Eviction %?

Thanks for all your comments and queries on the other posts..

This will be the thread for tonight's fun and games, so open the windows - grab an ice bucket for your bevvies and let us know who you think will leave on this hot and sticky evening and what eviction % they'll get! We'll publish the final results here before the start of the live show.. Blue Square are still taking those free bets!

Now, over to Statman on the data;

Given we have just entered the eleventh hour, lets just cut to the chase.

Jayne will leave the big brother house this evening. No need to stop the press there, then. The real interesting question is what percentage she will register.

Of the 351 respondents (thanks again!) to our Friday eviction poll, 70.4% of you were tired of her gaseous outbursts. When we filter out non voters, we see that this figure drops to 70.1 %

What could cause the actual vote to differ significantly from our polling figure? In our experience in conducting these Friday night eviction polls, we find there are three things:

1. Basic sampling error (a feature of any poll)
2. A "swing" caused by a favourable eviction edit to one of the housemates
3. A common perception among voters that their choice of evictee is going anyway, so proportion of them don't actually bother voting.

Remember Lea? We think that tonight's voting environment is showing some of the same characteristics of her defeat at the hands of Big Gay Dickie. Addressing the points above:

1. In our experience we find that the result will come in fairly close to the polling figure, notwithstanding points 2 and 3. A theoretical figure would be +/- 3%

2. We have seen the edit to tonight's show and it is not a hatchet job, but does nothing to help Richard's chances and nothing to damage Jayne's.

3. This is where the similarity with Lea really lies. Because 84% of you think that Jayne is a gonner tonight, there is a risk there may be some voter apathy from the anti-Jayne camp thinking their input won't be required.

Taking all the above into account these points could well force the eventual vote to come in slightly lower than our polling figure. If you held a gun to my head I would say that 65% - 70% is the most sensible place to be.

Mind you, people can say stupid things when you hold guns to their heads...

Statman

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a message to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

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Monte Carlo or Bust

I recently realised that I have a gambling problem. I booked an appointment with the experts at the Special Bets clinic and as always they were more than happy to help. Before I had even sat down they had diagnosed me with an acute case of OCBPD ("Obsessive Compulsive Backing Pete Disorder").

You see, I just can't stop backing Pete. Heaven only knows what is going through the minds of people currently wanting to lay him at 1.37 to win this year's Big Brother. Are they taking profits from previous bets at higher odds? Are they simply crazy? What could possibly encourage anybody in their right mind to bet against Pete and his Mountain of Love? He won't walk out, he's a fighter. He may yet be poisoned by Glyn's cooking, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. As far as I can see, only a summoning to the big Diary Room in the Sky can stop Pete from strolling home as things currently stand.

The Special Bets specialist prescribed me with large doses of statistical analysis in order to cure my obsession, and it has worked. I've suddenly stopped backing him. "Why?" I hear you scream with genuinely feigned interest. The answer lies in one of the best places to look when dealing with games of chance: Monte Carlo.

Monte Carlo simulation is statistical analysis by brute force, in effect simulating every possible outcome. It is an honour and a privilege to have access to the 425 responses to the special survey we conducted over the last two days regarding your feelings towards the remaining housemates. A genuine thank you goes out to all those that took part. My repayment to you all is an attempt to use this data to simulate what could possibly happen to voting behaviour over the next five weeks.

If the vote were made this evening, Pete would win. The reason that there is still money to be made by backing him tonight is because of the risk that voters will change their preferences before the final night. It is with regard to how preferences may change that I have conducted over 12,000 simulations.

My assumptions are simple. Each housemate has an equal chance of attracting voters over the remainder of the competition (there is also a twelfth scenario that things simply don't change). Using the information regarding who you like and dislike I have assigned probabilities that each respondent will "migrate" their preference to a different housemate should they have a strong end to the show.

As the simulations flickered across my computer screen, my excitement grew. I realised that all I had to do was count how many times each housemate won and that would be their probability of winning according to the model, and hence I could calculate a "fair value" on the betting exchanges. When the flickering stopped, this is what I saw:

So you can see why I've stopped backing Pete. I don't think he's not going to win, it's just that according to how you feel he's not good value at 1.37. Comparing the above table to the current betfair odds, it would appear that the odds for Glyn, Imogen and Mikey are also too short, whereas value can be found in Richard and Any Other.

As always, I would love to hear your thoughts.

Best

Statman

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a message to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

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Hacking The AOL Poll

Predicting who's leaving Big Brother every Friday can be a tricky business, particularly as there are dark forces out there trying to to trick the unsuspecting punter or BB Fan.

As you'll see below, the AOL "Big Brother Predictor" - "its rarely wrong" apparently has had over 170,000 votes this week and indicates rather surprisingly that the person that we've flagged as the most hated housemate from listening to your responses - Jayne - will actually survive the eviction vote vs Richard on Friday- what's going on?!


Big Brother evictions are sometime quite easy to predict, but professional gamblers need other, less well informed punters to believe the exact opposite as they'd like to get some of their money (waiting below at 1.1 or 1/10) matched on Jayne leaving.



How can you hack the AOL poll? Surely its too big to hack and each person can only vote once?

A casual voter might be forgiven for believing this as the voting box disappears once you've cast your vote. However the hackers have some (fairly simple) software programs they employ to trick the AOL poll (which trys to block multi-voting by reading your PC's cookie).

Often using PERL software to multi-vote 1000s of votes and sometimes even some random number generation technology - to evade detection, the poll hackers can operate almost undetected to the casual observer, making these online polls near useless as their reliability can only ever be guessed at.

The Special Bets polls are one-member-one-vote. Hackers can have a go at hacking our poll, but they are easy to spot and delete from the data. We never publish poll results on the blog without making detailed security checks of the data. Some multi-voting is of course innocent, but we still delete responses that conflict before publication.

All of which means of course that unfortunately, you'll have to keeping reading Statman's ramblings if you really want a clear view of the public's perceptions of Big Brother contestants.. We'll launch an eviction poll for Friday's fun shortly to help you get a fix on the likely eviction % Jayne will acheive. You can get an idea of why we're so confident Jayne will be on her way reading Statman's post here on Tuesday night.

If you'd like to test our theory with a bet, click through the "odds comparison" link to compare all the bookies and exchange's prices on Friday's eviction or why not sign up with our partner Blue Square's free £25 bet offer below - you really can't lose with that offer - even if we're wrong!

Watch Out For Those Dark Forces!

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a message to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

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A Picture Of Emotion

Numbers are my friends, and today I have made over 300 of them in the form of responses to the Special Bets survey on your feelings about the remaining housemates. You are an emotional bunch. 80% of you are in love (some with more than one person), whilst a similar proportion are in, erm, hate.


Some of the results will be obvious, some not so, but I believe I can now present to you pictures which in a snapshot capture where the loyalty and the loathing lies.

Given we are still in the eviction stages, lets start with the hate angle. The graphic below has eleven "spokes", each ending with the name of a housemate. Along those spokes is charted the percentage of respondents with a particular emotion for that housemate, starting with the most negative: hate. Other less negative emotions ranging from dislike to love also appear along the spokes, however in order for them to show up, they have to travel further along the spoke than the previous more negative emotions. The colour of the graphic closest to the housemates name indicates the overriding emotion felt towards them according to the poll.

They say a picture paints a thousand words, and on that basis there's not enough room on this blog to run through the multitude of inferences that can be drawn from the above. However, to name just a couple that I find interesting, it would appear that Susie is not drawing the sort of fire that I alluded to last week, and that based on the above, Richard fans could out-muscle Aisleynes.

"Where is the love?" sang Roberta Flack in 1972, and thirty four years on we asked the same question, however I don't think Roberta ever expected the answer to be this:

Once again this reveals a plethora of information, some interesting, some not so. Whilst we all knew that Pete’s “Love Mountain” would be visible from space, we can also see that Spiral is horribly exposed by a lack of supporters, and whilst Jennie is well liked, she is not well loved.

As any self-respecting statistician should know, with 11 remaining housemates there are 55 unique pairs and 165 unique triplets, each one representing a potential future voting situation. I couldn’t possibly begin to guess which particular permutations or combinations would be of interest to you, but what I can promise is to respond fully to anyone who wants to know our thoughts on a potential head to head situation.

A topical one would be Richard vs Jayne, but that’s also a very very easy one…

Please let me know your thoughts

Best

Statman

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a message to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

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Big Brother Special Survey Results

Statman will publish the results and some conclusions here as soon as he's done his "number crunching".

I've just had a sneaky peak at Statman's post... its a work of sheer amazing geekery.. when he is finished fiddling with his pretty pictures we'll have some results.. about 30 mins..

I WILL tell you though that the Jayne vs Richard eviction will be no contest at all and current Jayne odds 1.14ish on Betfair are value...