Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Sunday, May 06, 2007

** French Presidential Election Results Special **


We're getting some good information on the French Election from our Paris contacts, there will be a live feed running here throughout the day.... jeanmarie

Jean-Marie Guenot

>>>>7pm Congratulations Sarko!

>>>>5.22pm raises their exit+results estimate to Sarkozy 54.5%

>>>>4.46pm reports a 54% estimate for Sarkozy...

>>>>4.36pm reports 54% Sarkozy...


RTBF Radio (Belgium) PDLI reports; "
According to a source close to official circles, Nicolas Sarkozy would have, according to an exit poll gained the presidential election, obtaining more than 53% of the vote. A figure which must obviously be confirmed since vote is still underway".

>>>>4.14 GMT - Turnout update;

The Interior Ministry reports 75.11% turnout at 5pm French time vs 73.87% at the same time on April 22 (with bigger waiting times also reported).

>>>>4pm GMT

Rumours abound that Sarkozy is ahead with "between and 52 and 54%" of the vote based on early exit polls. Those in the know suggest it will be at least half an hour more for there to be decent data. Take this with a big pinch of salt...

>>>>3.26pm GMT

"The first indicators give the advantage to Nicolas Sarkozy based on various surveys carried out at the exit of the ballot boxes (in particular in Overseas)" says Swiss Website Le Temps biopharma...

>>>>3pm GMT - USA Results in, Official Data About To Leak;

At 4pm French time, AFP report high estimated turnout, long waiting times (1 hour+ to vote) There are some "results" flying around but these are purely fictional or based on the non-mainland votes.


34.11% of registered voters have voted by midday French time - +3% points than at the same time during the first vote. Figure is even higher in Paris - +4%

>>>> GMT Update

The French Overseas Departments and Territories votes have been calculated and are now available internally. Turnout is "up" on average vs the first round.

>>>>10.21 GMT Update

Sources have reviewed a selection of unpublished final French election polls and the news is that the gap between Sarkozy and Royal has maintained and slightly extended.

Carried out on Friday, they show a gap of between between 8-11% points for Nicolas Sarkozy. versus 8-10% for those carried out the day before and published before the embargo.

Around 85% of those polled say they have decided. The abstention numbers should be slightly higher for the second round, those intending to abstain are between 18 and 20% which would an increase from the first vote which was 16%.

>>>> 9.29 am GMT Update.

Under French law, polls are not published (in France) in the immediate run-up to elections. That hasn't stopped the pollsters polling though. Ipsos have a new poll which is being circulated privately this morning showing no real change from their last update on May 4th which showed Sarkozy 55% (+1)

Our early anecdotal information on turnout is that it has been very high from polls opening at 7am GMT, perhaps more brisk than even the first round.

We'll have the early exit polls/results and more information as it comes in, posted here live.

Latest odds are available here; Paddy Power are still open for business!