Special Bets: 2006-08-06

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Winner's Poll Update - Pete and Aisleyne To Take The Top Spots?

We've seen a range of Big Brother fansites showing Aisleyne with a very high % of their "Who Do You Want To Win" votes so we set our email poll in motion to see what our own reliable group think about finals week. Here's what we've learned today;

451 Responses, we're not showing those that indicate they will not vote...

This is the "money shot" question... we were quite shocked to see Aisleyne within 8% of Pete in second position;

25.7% of you won't like to see Aisleyne doing so well as she's your least favourite, but the 36.4% of you that like Nikki the least should be happy;

With all this negativity, what about tactical voting?
- 61.8% of you might try it;

But that would seem to serve only to maintain the status quo as the potential tactical vote is evenly spread (ex Jennie);

So what's going on? Why the sudden spike in Aisleyne's popularity?

Our view is that the public are tired of being manipulated, and Aisleyne represents the "anti-hero" angry BB fans can support to get back at Endemol. She's also been behaving cooly and constructively in the house of late.

Even before Nikki went into the main house again you made it clear to us that;

You don't think its fair that Nikki can win the winner's prize.

You think that Endemol's Brighter Pictures have engineered Nikki's entry into the house and that makes you angry!

Have a look over at Statman's excellent post interpreting the public's views in our polls;

Keep it here, we'll update you on any changes, but right now Aisleyne looks a good bet for at least second place.

Nikki's poor showing at a time when she has had maximum exposure from the production team surely bodes poorly for her chances of NOT being separated from her beloved Petey again later in the show...

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Love's Young Dream....

Friday, August 11, 2006

Friday Eviction Poll Update 9pm

Here's our 9pm update - Seeing a small swing to Richard... we're thinking below 65% now..

There's significant apathy as usual among the 247 responders - 47.2% of our group say they will definitely not be voting and only 20.2% say they definitely WILL.

68% of you say you would vote for Imogen to be evicted vs only 32% for Richard.

If you are playing the % prediction game, our only concern would be that a whopping 95% of you THINK Imogen leaves tonight - might complacency effect the vote and bring the actual % lower?

Given the swing we are thinking "below 65%"... keep it here..

The "Twist" - UPDATE!

News just in - Special Bets understands that tonight's vote by the current housemates to decide who joins from the House Next Door will NOT include Glyn.

Glyn will be BANNED from voting as punishment for his roof-climbing antics during the week and will be banished to the bedroom.

This will leave Aisleyne, Pete, Jennie, and the survivor from tonight's eviction with ONE minute to decide whether Grace, Lea, Nikki or Mikey will spend the final week in the main house.

P.S. We are of course conducting our usual Friday eviction survey, and will be giving updates later on this afternoon.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Nikki II – She's Back! And This Time It's (Slightly) Different!!

As any movie buff will know, sequels are often over hyped and rarely as good as the originals. Some exceptions to this rule have occurred (Terminator and The Godfather being the obvious ones) but they are dwarfed by a slew of cynical money-spinning “they’re back, and this time it’s slightly different”-type follow-ups.

Grease, Back to the Future, Lethal Weapon, Predator, TeenWolf, Speed, Saturday Night Fever, Karate Kid, Gremlins, Police Academy, Crocodile Dundee, the list of sequels which did nothing other than tarnish the standing of the original seems to go on and on. There was even a Dirty Dancing II, which not many people know about. Why don’t people know about it? Because it went straight to video. Why did it go straight to video? Because it was rubbish.

Based on this evidence, the likelihood is that “Nikki II” is not going to be as good as the original, and may even damage any credibility that she had in the first place.

Fortunately, I don’t have to speculate as to whether this will be the case or not because once again I have the privilege of access to the 333 responses to our most recent special survey on how you feel about the remaining, and returning, housemates.

Firstly, let’s take a look at how sequel-hungry you are about the returning housemate:

Already it’s not looking good for our generic "former housemate" – over 50% of you think it is not "morally correct " for a housemate to be evicted and then come back and beat a housemate that has been there for the duration.

This is also reflected in the rankings - whilst 37% of you say you love your favourite ex housemate, only 18% of you would hand them the trophy should they get back in - with 21% of you actually ranking them last behind all remaining housemates.

Let’s dig a little deeper into what may happen to the votes in the final week if Nikki should return on Friday. Here’s a chart which sums it up quite nicely:

Some observers may be surprised that Nikki is having such a small impact on the current voting landscape. However, given that 50% of voters have Nikki as their favourite ex-housemate, and only 22% of Nikki fans say they will vote for her on finals night, it makes sense that this leaves her with around a 11% (50% x 22%) overall voting figure. The reason the figure in the graph is slightly less than this is because a small amount of respondents contradicted themselves by saying they would vote for Nikki to win, and then did not rank her in first place in a subsequent question.

Remember, this analysis assumes Nikki has already made it into the main house, which is not (quite) a done deal just yet. I feel that the odds are stacked in her favour to get back in, however I would suggest that any speculative betting on her winning the competition on this event would be an excellent opportunity to lay her in both the outright and "without Pete" markets on Betfair.

At the risk of sounding lonely, please let me know your thoughts on the above.

Statman

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

The Final Showdown

This is the one we've ALL been waiting for...

The record-breaking Lionheart declared war on “The Plastics” only ten days into this competition, and has been picking them off one by one ever since. His opening salvo was to accuse Imogen of being “as dull as a leek sandwich”, an insult that she has never forgiven him for.

Imogen has nominated Richard every time she has been free to do so, and Richard has returned fire, nominating her 6 out of 8 possible times.

This week they get what they want – A final showdown, head to head.

We began conducting our weekly eviction survey as soon as the nominations were announced, and this is what 225 respondents so far have told us:

62.9% of you will vote to evict the lovely Imogen. 22.3% want Richard to fall at the final hurdle, and 14.7% said you would not vote.

With the distraction of the house next door this week, and the tactical awareness of Richard the Conqueror, it is unlikely that this week will see such a dramatic swing as we did last week.

But should there be one, you will read it here first.

Best

Statman

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