Saturday, January 28, 2006

The Celebrity Big Brother Final - Review Of The Voting;

Were you surprised by Barrymore coming second? How did the Maggot beat Preston? Was Chantelle as "nailed on" to win as the polls suggested? Here's our review that should shed some light.

Here's what our CBB Finals Poll said going in to the finals night.

The voting figures that Channel 4/Endemol quotes removes the evicted housemates and then recalibrates the % for the remaining housemates. We have reversed that process to shed a little light on what happened on finals night.

CBB Place------Official Voting Figure------Actual % Of Total Vote

1st)Chantelle ----------------56%-------------------29.4%
2nd)Barrymore------------ 43.6% ------------------22.7%
3rd)Maggot ----------------23.5%-------------------16.0%
4th)Preston --------------- 16.7%-------------------13.6%
5th)Pete Burns-------------13.6%-------------------12.8%

It is the "actual % of the total vote" figure that is comparable to our poll question "who is your favourite to win Celebrity Big Brother", but this is clearly not the full story. When a housemate is evicted their supporters may then transfer their allegiance and vote for another housemate - producing very different popularity figures after evictions than before. Traci's '% of the total vote' figure is the only one we know is accurate as she was evicted first. How might the other figures have changed as Friday's show progressed?

Pete Burns Comes 5th, Evicted after Traci

Almost all Traci's supporters we've polled like Pete Burns the least - due to his attacks on her 'for fun'. Traci leaving first may then have been the difference between it being Pete or Preston next.
If we assume 1 million votes were cast in the final 2 days, (this may be a high figure as there were only 3mm votes cast in the whole 23 days) at the point of the next eviction (Pete's) Preston was only ahead by 7849 votes. Traci had 53,000 votes. - likely representing 30,000 supporters or so allowing for multiple voting. Our polls indicated Traci's fans also like Chantelle, Preston and Maggot, so if a group of those 30,000 fans voted again, Pete would not receive many of those new votes.

Why was Preston evicted so early if he was popular?

Pete Burns' eviction did Preston no favours at all. In our polls, Pete Burns' fans say they liked Maggot, Traci and Barrymore the most. They do not like Chantelle and Preston. Using the figure of 1mm votes in the final again - Pete had 128,792 votes in the last 2 days - 90,000 suporters? These supporters, if they voted again would help Maggot and Barrymore and be no help to Chantelle or Preston.

Preston's key problem in finals night though was that he has the same strong support base as Chantelle, but that support base prefers Chantelle and so vote for her, not him.
32% of voters in our poll wanted Preston to come second, but only 8% wanted him to
come first.

How Did Barrymore Come Second And Almost First?

Casual viewers tuning into the final who do not participate in internet polls may well have thought either;

"Ooh there's funnyman Barrymore" ->> VOTE Barrymore
"Ooh there's that **** Barrymore " ->>do not vote

Where as for Chantelle;
"Who's the blonde?

Further, Chantelle was the most popular housemate in our poll and although she likely gained Preston's supporter's votes after he was evicted, all other voting groups in the main did not support her. Casual, perhaps older CBB viewers (not also doing internet polls) voted for Barrymore.

If the polls had been open just a little longer (and there is talk of them being closed early) could Barrymore have actually won? THAT would have been the bet of the Specials year!

Click Here for the full results of our CBB Final poll.

If you like the look of our polls and would like to join our reality polling group please send an email with "Sign Me Up" in the title.

A special mention for a special website;

Special Bets would like to extend a BIG thank you to Pat from BBGossip for his assistance throughout the series.

BBGossip is now in its fifth year of Big Brother coverage and has an impressive archive of over 10,000 relevant articles from the press over series 3, 4, 5 and 6 (and Celebrity Big Brother 2, the panto and CBB3) along with hundreds of thousands of live updates written by users of the website. BBGossip is a place where all the news comes together, helping other Big Brother fan sites, who are quick on the draw with their own gossip and interesting articles, gain exposure for their merits and also to allow people to create their own sense of community.

Click Here for the full results of our CBB Final poll.

Bet in the Betfair Betting Exchange. Click here!

Friday, January 27, 2006

Celebrity Big Brother - The Live Final - Transmission Of Eviction Times

These are official times. We will be making specific predictions ON THIS PAGE so click back later.

Our thoughts on tonight's Evictions;

1) Chantelle will win easily tonight. She is currently polling 40% of the vote

2) Preston is the clear market favourite to come second, or first in the "without
Chantelle" market. The same people that like Preston are those that like Chantelle - so she takes votes that otherwise would go to him.

He is not picking up that many positive votes - so we think he may not come 2nd. We'll see.


8.39pm - The name of the housemate in 6th place will be announced. After30 seconds this housemate will leave the house to be interviewed byDavina.
8.53pm - The name of the housemate in 5th place will be announced. After30 seconds this housemate will leave the house to be interviewed byDavina.
9.06pm - The name of the housemate in 4th place will be announced. After30 seconds this housemate will leave the house to be interviewed byDavina.
9.25pm - The name of the housemate in 3rd place will be announced. This housemate will remain in the house for the next 30 minutes.

2130 - HALF HOUR SHOW ON E4: CELEBRITY BIG BROTHER - THE LAST FULL DAY IN THE HOUSE - Highlights from the previous 24 hours in the Celebrity Big Brotherhouse.


10.04pm - The housemate in 3rd place will leave the house.
10.23pm - Davina will announce the winner of Celebrity Big Brother 2006
10.25pm - The housemate in 2nd place leaves the house.
10.39 - 10.41pm - The winner leaves the house to be greeted by Davina
10.53pm - The winner is interviewed by Davina
11pm - Celebrity Big Brother ends

Bet in the Betfair Betting Exchange. Click here!
View the best CBB odds here;

Thursday, January 26, 2006

Now Simon Hughes Is Forced To Tell The Truth About HIS "Secret"

In an stunning about face, Simon Hughes today attends the confession box in the the form of an exclusive interview with The Sun's Trevor Kavanagh.
  • Simon tells Trevor he has had homosexual relationships.
  • Special Bets find this hard to tally with Simon's unnecessary statement to the Independent ten days ago that he has not.
  • This appears to have been prompted not by a bout of honesty on Hughes' part but by information The Sun have on Simon's involvement with a gay chat service — "Man Talk".

The Sun points out that Hughes
won his Commons seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell — the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him. During the by-election the Lib-Dems presented him as “the straight choice”.

We're surprised at Simon's naiveity in this whole "is he or isn't he" saga. Hughes is a single man, and so we're confused as to why Hughes felt the need to lie so publically about this issue.
We agree with Simon's previous statements that the country IS ready to accept a gay party leader - but what was the need for the bare faced denial?

As we have written before the Lib Dem leadership campaign has been highly damaging to the image of the party. Another contender for the leadership has been forced into an embarrassing admission of deceit. We suspect that the reaction to Hughes' volte face on this issue will not be of sympathy, but rather of anger and confusion that yet another would be Prime Minister was not able to do what David Cameron chose to do on drugs and tell the truth about his private life.

Had Hughes told us about this issue previously, voluntarily - this could have been positive for his image - a missed opportunity for Hughes which potentially spells the end of his campaign in our view. View The Best Odds On The Lib Dem Leadership here;

Bet in the Betfair Betting Exchange. Click here

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Dennis Rodman Has Been Evicted. Channel 4 Show Is Not Live.

Updated Results Of The Celebrity Big Brother Double Eviction Poll;

Special Bets have been polling 350 members of our Survey group since Sunday's eviction announcement.
Here are our predictions for tonight's double eviction, we will
have a go at trying to get the final percentages right before 

Eviction 4

George Galloway will be the 4th housemate evicted from the Celebrity Big Brother House.
George will be evict
ed with 53% of the vote. Dennis Rodman will be in second place with
29%, Chantelle Houghton will be in third with 18%. Viewers will likely not be made aware
of Chantelle and Dennis's actual percentages. Davina may say that the vote is "close" or
that the remaining housemates are "within 11%" of each other.

Eviction 5

Dennis Rodman will be the 5th housemate evicted from the Celebrity Big Brother House.
When George Galloway's votes are removed from the total
, Dennis will have 62% of the
remaining eviction votes, Chantelle 38%. Dennis's lead will extend as the phones are
opened up again for voting. Our estimate for Dennis' final eviction % is 65%

Why will this be so?

The viewers will perceive that Chantelle and Dennis are in danger of eviction.

Chantelle is a more popular favourite than Dennis

9.9% of viewers polled like Chantelle the most of Wednesday's nominated 3 eviction
only 32.8% of viewers polled liked Dennis the most. Chantelle's supporters
will vote and create more eviction votes for Dennis than Dennis' supporters will create
for Chantelle.

Chantelle Has A Considerable Fan Base

In Special Bets' 3rd eviction poll, Chantelle was the first favourite of 32% of those polled.
She was the second favourite of 20.1% of those polled. Chantelle has a considerable fan base.
In the same poll Dennis Rodman was the first favourite of only 6.7% of those polled and the
second favourite of 15.1%.

George Galloway's Voters Are Apt to Vote for Dennis

In our poll,of those that voted for George Galloway and voted twice, 77% said they would also
vote for Dennis vs only 23% for Chantelle. When George Galloway is evicted in the 4th eviction,
those voters that elect to vote again will mainly vote for Dennis.

Dennis Rodman will be evicted with as much as 75% of the remaining vote.The % will depend on
the amount of time that is a
llocated by Channel 4 to the second period of voting.

Demographic Information

At time of writing, 360 members of our survey group had responded.
60.1% of the polling group were female.
The most common age group was 30-39 (32.9%). Ages ranged fro
m 11
years old to 72!

For any questions or feedback on the poll, please use the comments
section or email Special Bets at

View The Best Celebrity Big Brother Odds Here;

Tonight's Evictions - Eviction Day Tabloid Roundup

In The Mirror today the lovely Polly Hudson makes it clear where her loyalties will lie this evening, putting Chantelle top of her “Polyometer” and writing MUSTSTAYMUSTSTAYMUSTSTAY - Polly did your caps lock get stuck? Take your finger off the caps lock Polly and put it on redial for Dennis Rodman after Gorgeous George gets evicted - you know it makes tactical sense...

The Sun have done their bit today in support of George Galloway leaving before Dennis tonight, publishing pictures of Gorgeous George laughing and joking with Saddam Hussein's son Uday in 1999. Uday is believed to have been responsible for the torture and murder of thousands of Iraqis before he and his brother were fatally cornered by US troops in 2003.

Special Bets can't remember a housemate being associated with a mass murderer on the day of their potential eviction but we don't think it bodes well for George's chances* this may be an understatement

Almost unbelieveably, George is available to back on Betfair for the next eviction at 1.05/1.06 - so if readers fancy a year's worth of bank interest in a day on some spare cash we suggest you
go straight to Betfair and take the remaining money on George staying in - which will happen if he holes himself up in the house with a lot of guns 'n' ammo - just like his old mate Uday! View the best CBB odds here;

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Wednesday's Celebrity Big Brother NEGATIVE Evictions To Be The Last?

Possibly as CBB producers are concerned that they will lose their chosen winner if there is a repeat of tomorrow's 3 candidate negative eviction, The Mirror announces in an "exclusive" that there won't be one;

If you've been following the Special Bets Polls this series you'll have a fairly good idea who the Winner of a positive "who do you want to win" vote might be... *Clue* - Its not Barrymore.... Bye Bye Bazza! View the best CBB odds here;

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Oaten's Woes To Cause Swing To Ming?

We discussed Lib Dem members being apt to vote in the leadership election with their "Heads vs Hearts"in this piece on Friday, now we have another factor added into the mix.

The revelation that Mark Oaten has something he's kept hidden from the public underlines another strength of what Menzies 'Ming' Campbell represents as a candidate - a safe pair of hands during a time when the Lib Dems' leadership battle has descended into farce.

The two alternatives to Ming both come out of the Oaten affair badly in our view.

It is widely speculated that Simon Hughes is secretly gay, an accusation that the 54 year old single man has recently denied. Of course, as Simon himself points out " "There is no reason why you shouldn't have a gay leader of a party, or even a gay prime minister. I don't think this is an issue". Special Bets agrees wholeheartedly with Simon on that however the tone of Simon's interview with the Independent suggests to us a not altogether transparent situation.

In the last weeks, the Lib Dems have lost a popular leader due to secret alcoholism and now a potential leader due to being a secret bisexual. The media are in a frenzy over the Lib Dem leadership battle. Special Bets reckons that most Lib Dems wish this contest had never started - What better way to call a halt to this messy period than voting for grandee Ming?

And as for whether Chris Huhne had a collection of skeletons in his cupboard? Well even the Grauniad asked recently who Chris Huhne was (despite having worked on their own paper for many years..) View The Best Lib Dem Leadership Odds Here;

UPDATE Monday 08.44 - William Hill are quoted in today's torygraph leader as saying "since Oaten's resignation not one bet has been laid on the other candidates, Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne.

Bet in the Betfair Betting Exchange. Click here!