Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Aisleyne Pushes Ahead As The Week Draws To A Close;

Good evening poll watchers!

Some of you have upset
Statman it seems. He asked me to post tonight's update after the hostile reaction from some quarters to his pronouncements yesterday that concluded Aisleyne and Pete's Betfair prices were statistically incorrect.

Stat is new to being the "face" of anything and we know that there's a lot of money at stake for some people but please try to be nice - geeks aren't used to criticism, especially when they've
shown their working.

OK so let's move on.

For context, here's a look at our existing cumulative poll that started on Saturday morning and will continue all week. Here's the current vote total after 1105 of you responded.

Aisleyne has pushed ahead of Pete in the cummulative poll, so we were keen to do a "spot check" today on your views as we know that most votes for the winner of Big Brother occur on the final day - so later results are therefore more relevant.

Today from 2pm until 10pm,
77.% of you told us you thought Pete will win Big Brother, while 16% of you now think Aisleyne will win - wishful thinking?

Well who
would you vote for?

A "whopping"
39.7% of you (41.74% ex non voters) told us today that you will text or phone vote for Aisleyne to win - vs just 31.2% (or 32.8% ex non-voters) that would vote for Pete with Richard and Glyn battling it out for 3rd place;

We know that
multiple voting can be a factor, so these are the people that told us they would vote for their favourite "as many times as possible"

And below, the responders that said they would vote for their favourite "a few times".
- It seems that Aisleyne fans are more apt to multi-vote.

What about tactical voting? -Who would you vote for to "stop"?

We've removed those that said they would not vote to stop anyone.

There's no clear beneficiary - although Pete and Glyn fair slightly better than Richard or Aisleyne;

To try to address the "tactical" vote question another way - (by the way if you aren't aware what we're driving at here - "tactical" voting is voting for someone other than your favourite to change an outcome - in this case the order of Big Brother evictees) we asked if you might vote for another HM if your favourite HM was evicted;

And then asked those responders who they would vote for in that case;

We then asked this question another way using the popular scenario of Pete, Glyn and Aisleyne making the final cut;

Here's who you
dislike the most today; Nikki's unpopularity has picked up since we asked you last. You seem to dislike Aisleyne less than when we last asked you, although she is still the second most disliked HM.

So there you have it. Aisleyne is not only ahead in the cummulative poll, she seems to be showing tremendous current momentum - 8.5% ahead of Pete in today's "who will you vote for" poll.

Please ask any follow-up question you would like to see here on the blog. Statman will hopefully be back tonight or tomorrow. Please direct any statistical questions to him, but please don't be cross if Stat does not provide you with the answers that you were hoping for

Both polls remain LIVE - as this contest also seems to be...

Best as ever,


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Blogger BigMouth said...

Can I ask what the size of your polling sample is, and how these people became involved in this process? Is it possible in your view that they do not accurately represent the public?

12:20 AM  
Blogger onthehushhush said...

i'd like to know the answer to "have you already voted", and if so:

a) who did you vote for?
b) how many times?
c) did you phone or text?

that would give a current state of play rather than the expected end result, which would be useful for checking polls and suchlike.


12:59 AM  
Blogger secretdubai said...

I wonder what impact this might have if picked up by the press?

It has been clear that the producers have not given fair treatment to different housemates as they attempt to manipulate the show (fair enough, if it increases audiences). However they seriously screwed up by letting Nikki get evicted - how they didn't realise the risk they were taking with the mass-nomination-sans-Jayne is amazing - and (surprisingly, perhaps) putting Nikki back in has been an even bigger screw-up. They really seem to be misreading viewer reaction.

The most significant effect of Nikki's return has been a drop in popularity for Pete. I don't understand where the "viewers love romances" theory comes in. No one votes to keep a housemate for romantic "let-love-blossom" reasons, nor for the more salacious reason of possible dimly-lit, indistinct duvet action. There's a whole internet of pr0n out there ffs.

If this series is anything to go by, romances are no protection whatsoever against eviction, and possibly an eviction risk factor.

1:03 AM  
Blogger onthehushhush said...

it's the front page story in tonmorrow's Daily Star, secretdubai:

1:05 AM  
Blogger secretdubai said...

Ooo - thanks for that link onthehushhush.

8:21 AM  
Blogger Admin said...

BigMouth said...

Can I ask what the size of your polling sample is, and how these people became involved in this process? Is it possible in your view that they do not accurately represent the public?

Hi BigMouth.

We have thousands of people in our database and initially we take an invite -only slice them of them each time we conduct a poll. The people selected are reflective of Big Brother voters vs the public in general. We've found this year in the course of conducting 41 polls and recieving over 14,000 responses that people who like to participate in polls are the same people that participate in the show's votes.

9:02 AM  
Blogger Admin said...

OnTheHushHush - that a good idea - we have ofter done that in the past for evictions. I think that we will run such a check on Friday when more people will have voted.

9:08 AM  
Blogger Sarah said...

Dear Statman,

Sorry to hear you've had nasty comments - I just wanted to say thanks for everything you've done this series - it's really nice to see some serious statistical analysis on a subject as "flimsy" as Big Brother.

Here's hoping you're right - Ais to win!


12:46 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Thanks Soz!

The stats are easy - it's making it fun that's the hard bit.
Your appreciation is much appreciated!

1:18 PM  
Blogger thomasthetanker said...

Stat - Keep up the good work,just call it as you see it - You Star

Hushhush - Who is this masked man?

3:55 PM  
Blogger mills427 said...

Could it be that Aisleyne voters are not only more likely to vote multiple times for her, but are also far more likely to respond to your survey than fans of other housemates? Just a thought.

Good luck with your prediction tonight and thanks for your work throughout the series.

7:41 PM  

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