Nikki's Breakdown.

It has been an emotional end to an emotional week.
Here at Special Bets we like emotions (though personally I rarely have them myself) because they provide us with opportunities to bet. The emotion-based debate over whether the house will be better off tantrum-free is in its infancy.


However, the salient question that needs urgent attention today is not whether Nikki's eviction was a good thing, but how her absence will affect future voting behaviour.

The extraordinary thing is, Nikki has consistently been the second most popular housemate in our polls for nearly the whole series. In terms of fanbase "firepower", she was one of only three housemates (the others being Aisleyne and Pete) whose following could have a significant effect on voting behaviour if they acted as a group. I took a stroll through our polls to try and break down the Nikki supporters to see how 20% of the Big Brother voting public will react to their pwincess being sent into exile.

According to last week's eviction poll, the landscape of "Favourite housemate" should change as follows:

So we can clearly see that assuming most Nikki fans don't just turn off their televisions now, the biggest change is that not only has Pete lost his second closest rival, but he has picked up a substantial amount of votes.

In terms of how these new fans may vote, I would like to introduce a graphic that I call a "hate web".

If an arrow goes from housemate A to housemate B then it means that a significant proportion of housemate A's fans dislike housemate B. A red arrow indicates that the relationship translates into a significant amount of votes, and the thicker the arrow then the larger the absolute number of votes generated by the relationship. This particular web does not include Jayne because she was not up for eviction last week.

So we are left now with two dominant fanbases - Pete and Aisleyne. I would expect Aisleyne and Susie to a lesser extent to pick up votes from the increase in Pete's fanbase. The real interesting question is: where will Aisleyne fans turn their guns next? Looking back through the polls the next housemate on the Aisleyne fan's "hitlist"has been Susie.

So I would expect the pressure on Susie to increase over the next couple of weeks.

Of course, the above discussion did not include Jayne, and judging by our recent surveys she is the most disliked housemate of them all. If it were a straight Susie vs Jayne, I think hate would probably prevail.

As always, I would be delighted to discuss these ramblings further with anyone should they wish to.

Statman

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Final Results Of The Special Bets 8th Eviction Poll

For the first time in this series of Big Brother we are seeing an eviction tonight where the evictee was not immediately obvious from the moment that nominations were announced.

All week we have been asking you who you want to see leave the big brother house and all week you have been telling us the same thing:

Nikki.

Having collected over 1000 votes from Monday to Thursday we even sent out a new poll today which has had nearly 600 responses (thanks to all those who responded!) and you told us the same thing again, in fact, her percentage was even higher today.

Here are the final results in their naked percentage glory:

Of the 589 responses received today, 37% of you wanted Nikki to go tonight, with Aisleyene receiving 21% and Susie 14%. This is broadly in line with the other respectable polls that we have been seeing today, although there are some people out there still calling it for Aisleyne.

What is more compelling is that when we filter the data for those who are more likely to vote than not, Nikki enjoys a whopping 45% of the 302 responses.

It would appear to us that Nikki has complained about the air conditioning for the last time.

Best,

Statman

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Latest poll update 3.45pm

We've heard from sources close to the show that the potential "Aisleyne Hatchet Job" we've been worried about will not be forthcoming this evening.

We think that perhaps they've realised that given Nikki is so clearly ahead in the vote (as reflected in our polls) despite their attempts to arrange the contrary - any further "meddling" would be fruitless and even have the opposite effect.

We know that Brighter Productions are keen readers of forum sites like Digital and from our IP logs, even the Special Bets Blog - perhaps they've decided to let this one go..

We started a new poll this morning - Nikki now has a bigger lead than at any time of this week..

After 327 responses - Nikki has 35.8%, Aisleyne 23.9%, Suzie 15.3% Spiral 7.3%, Richard 4.9%, Imogen 3.7%, Mikey 4.9% (animal rights activists?)Michael 2.1%, Glyn 1.2%, Pete 0.9% and Jennie yet to record a score!

Looks like we'll be bidding Nikki goodbye tonight...

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Thursday's Night's Update;

Nikki has been out in front and stable in our poll. The swing we've seen in the last 2 days is away from Suzie toward Aisleyne. So why not "lump on" to Nikki at the current 2.3 type odds?

Well... BB's production company "Brighter Productions" have realised that by putting everyone up for eviction they risk losing one of the stars of the show - Nikki.

Love her or hate her, Nikki is a class "act" and Brighter know it.

Program after program this week has been spun to show Aisleyne in a bad light and Nikki in the best possible light. Can Brighter succeed and get Aisleyne into the eviction position by Friday? We are worried that they could, and are adopting a neutral position between the two...

Let's dig a bit deeper into the data. Aisleyne's fans want to vote for;


But Nikki's fans aren't countering Aisleyne's fans as well..

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BB Eviction Shock Poll - everyone is up but Jayne - who will you vote for to evict?

Nominations for this week's eviction have been cancelled.. Jayne's discussion of nominations has caused Big Brother to "punish" Jayne by putting all her fellow HMs up for eviction - We'll keep the poll results from our survey group running live on here - check back for updates..last 7:39am - Nikki currently in the frame to go.

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Pete's Popularity - When Will "Perfect Pete" Stop Becoming Less Popular?

We've been asking the question "Who is your favourite remaining Big Brother contestant?" of our Survey Group 1-2 times weekly since May 22nd and have collected a total of 5673 reponses to this question in that time frame.

When Pete was receiving responses in the high 60's % we backed him heavily to win Big Brother despite the fact that at the time, we were not even 1/4 of the way through the show.


Now at the half-way point we've taken a neutral position on Pete in our prop book. As you can see in the result below from Friday's eviction survey, Pete is still in the lead in the standard "favourite" question - 35.9% of responses - but we think that it is important to take into context how this figure has changed since the early weeks of the show.

Pete's support as first favourite has decreased by 46.1% from his highest rating of 66.6% in our June 3rd poll. As you'll notice in the chart above, Pete has been been less popular each time we've asked the group since June 9th - and this concerns us, particularly the speed at which this change is occurring.

Pete is now "catchable" to an extent he has never been before;

If we consider the poll that exhibited the peak of Pete's popularity - June 3rd - the GAP between Pete and the next most popular choice - Nikki - was massive.

For Nikki to win Big Brother (say with 50.1% of the final vote) from that period her popularity would have had to have increased by 450% from June 3rd levels for her to catch Pete. This "vote share increase target" has decreased since that point by 67.6%.

And this really is the crux of the question - who is the most credible challenger and can they catch up to Pete?

The highest % score ever achieved by a challenger - Nikki - occurred fairly recently - the 27th of June poll where she averaged out at 23.4% of the "Who Do Want To Win?" question after scoring up to 25% "intra-poll".

We'll be monitoring the situation closely, but we feel we can't weight our book back heavily in favour of Pete with so many weeks to go until he stops his popularity slide...

We'd love to hear your views on this article (Statman is a notable dissenter from our view). Leave feedback in the comments section and if you have data related questions ask there and we'll be happy to help.

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