Winner's Poll Update - 10.30 P.M. Tuesday 15th August

On Sunday morning I predicted that Aisleyne would be ahead in our poll overall by 7 pm that evening. As it turns out, I was two days too early.



Aisleyne moved into the lead in our poll this evening. As it currently stands, after 1,023 responses, Aisleyne has 28.9% of the vote, Pete 28%, Glyn 14.4%, Nikki 9.3%, Richard 8.8% and Jennie 1.6%

I mentioned in the last update that the theoretical "fair value" odds for Pete and Aisleyne based on their Probability of Leading were 1.26 and 4.9 respectively, and over the last day the market has moved to reflect this.

However, given the change in leadership in the poll, the theoretical odds have also changed. Pete's Probability of Leading has been reduced to 35.1%, and Aisleyne's has risen to 64.9%.

This would suggest that the "fair value" odds for Pete are now 2.8, and for Aisleyne 1.54.

Our chart shows that it has been a collapse in Pete's rolling percentage vote that has seen Aisleyne take the lead, whilst her voting percentage has remained steady. (Click to enlarge).



Can she hold on?

Stay tuned.

Statman

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