Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Winner's Poll Update - 10.30 P.M. Tuesday 15th August

On Sunday morning I predicted that Aisleyne would be ahead in our poll overall by 7 pm that evening. As it turns out, I was two days too early.



Aisleyne moved into the lead in our poll this evening. As it currently stands, after 1,023 responses, Aisleyne has 28.9% of the vote, Pete 28%, Glyn 14.4%, Nikki 9.3%, Richard 8.8% and Jennie 1.6%

I mentioned in the last update that the theoretical "fair value" odds for Pete and Aisleyne based on their Probability of Leading were 1.26 and 4.9 respectively, and over the last day the market has moved to reflect this.

However, given the change in leadership in the poll, the theoretical odds have also changed. Pete's Probability of Leading has been reduced to 35.1%, and Aisleyne's has risen to 64.9%.


This would suggest that the "fair value" odds for Pete are now 2.8, and for Aisleyne 1.54.

Our chart shows that it has been a collapse in Pete's rolling percentage vote that has seen Aisleyne take the lead, whilst her voting percentage has remained steady. (Click to enlarge).



Can she hold on?

Stay tuned.

Statman

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6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very interesting analysis. What are your thoughts on the time it takes voters to digest the new information in each show?

12:19 AM  
Blogger Joe454 said...

Thanks again, for your very interesting work.

I’m surprised that you got as many as 1000 people reply to the emails, that’s a hugely decent sample. It is, however, a sample selected for having high BB interest. I wonder how much it differs from the casual viewer? Non-fan sites MSN and Yahoo have Pete with a comfortable lead. (Although these can probably be hacked, a couple of days ago Yahoo was erratic)

Although Ash is moving up they are so incredibly (prediction voidingly) close. A lot depends if Pete continues his religious voyage of self destruction. Nail biting.

10:16 AM  
Blogger Joe454 said...

For "casual viewer" above read "majority-casual viewer"

10:17 AM  
Blogger onthehushhush said...

hi guys. any update tonight? or have you seen a massive swing to Nikki, gambled the farm, and fled to Barbados?

12:10 AM  
Blogger mememe said...

Why doesn't aisleyne's name appear on Betfair?

How can people place a bet on her?

1:02 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

mememe - She's listed as "any other" as she came in late. "any other" is Jennie or Aisleyne to win BB

1:10 PM  

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