Thursday, July 20, 2006

Hacking The AOL Poll

Predicting who's leaving Big Brother every Friday can be a tricky business, particularly as there are dark forces out there trying to to trick the unsuspecting punter or BB Fan.

As you'll see below, the AOL "Big Brother Predictor" - "its rarely wrong" apparently has had over 170,000 votes this week and indicates rather surprisingly that the person that we've flagged as the most hated housemate from listening to your responses - Jayne - will actually survive the eviction vote vs Richard on Friday- what's going on?!



Big Brother evictions are sometime quite easy to predict, but professional gamblers need other, less well informed punters to believe the exact opposite as they'd like to get some of their money (waiting below at 1.1 or 1/10) matched on Jayne leaving.



How can you hack the AOL poll? Surely its too big to hack and each person can only vote once?

A casual voter might be forgiven for believing this as the voting box disappears once you've cast your vote. However the hackers have some (fairly simple) software programs they employ to trick the AOL poll (which trys to block multi-voting by reading your PC's cookie).

Often using PERL software to multi-vote 1000s of votes and sometimes even some random number generation technology - to evade detection, the poll hackers can operate almost undetected to the casual observer, making these online polls near useless as their reliability can only ever be guessed at.

The Special Bets polls are one-member-one-vote. Hackers can have a go at hacking our poll, but they are easy to spot and delete from the data. We never publish poll results on the blog without making detailed security checks of the data. Some multi-voting is of course innocent, but we still delete responses that conflict before publication.

All of which means of course that unfortunately, you'll have to keeping reading Statman's ramblings if you really want a clear view of the public's perceptions of Big Brother contestants..
We'll launch an eviction poll for Friday's fun shortly to help you get a fix on the likely eviction % Jayne will acheive. You can get an idea of why we're so confident Jayne will be on her way reading Statman's post here on Tuesday night.

If you'd like to test our theory with a bet, click through the "odds comparison" link to compare all the bookies and exchange's prices on Friday's eviction or why not sign up with our partner Blue Square's free £25 bet offer below - you really can't lose with that offer - even if we're wrong!

Watch Out For Those Dark Forces!

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a mess
age to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

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19 Comments:

Anonymous superstar tipster said...

When can we see the poll results for this weeks eviction?

8:31 PM  
Anonymous Superstar tipster said...

My eviction % prediction is Jayne with 64%

8:52 PM  
Anonymous punter said...

That poll is notorious for being hacked/botted. Every week there have been obvious fraud patterns of one nominee suddenly getting a rush of a few thousand votes in the space of 30 minutes. It was very noticeable with the Richard vs Lea eviction.

All the other internet polls tend to mirror one another, and they're usually accurate. But I wouldn't trust the AOL one.

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