Jayne or Richard - Who Goes And What Eviction %?

Thanks for all your comments and queries on the other posts..

This will be the thread for tonight's fun and games, so open the windows - grab an ice bucket for your bevvies and let us know who you think will leave on this hot and sticky evening and what eviction % they'll get! We'll publish the final results here before the start of the live show.. Blue Square are still taking those free bets!

Now, over to Statman on the data;

Given we have just entered the eleventh hour, lets just cut to the chase.

Jayne will leave the big brother house this evening. No need to stop the press there, then. The real interesting question is what percentage she will register.

Of the 351 respondents (thanks again!) to our Friday eviction poll, 70.4% of you were tired of her gaseous outbursts. When we filter out non voters, we see that this figure drops to 70.1 %

What could cause the actual vote to differ significantly from our polling figure? In our experience in conducting these Friday night eviction polls, we find there are three things:

1. Basic sampling error (a feature of any poll)
2. A "swing" caused by a favourable eviction edit to one of the housemates
3. A common perception among voters that their choice of evictee is going anyway, so proportion of them don't actually bother voting.

Remember Lea? We think that tonight's voting environment is showing some of the same characteristics of her defeat at the hands of Big Gay Dickie. Addressing the points above:

1. In our experience we find that the result will come in fairly close to the polling figure, notwithstanding points 2 and 3. A theoretical figure would be +/- 3%

2. We have seen the edit to tonight's show and it is not a hatchet job, but does nothing to help Richard's chances and nothing to damage Jayne's.

3. This is where the similarity with Lea really lies. Because 84% of you think that Jayne is a gonner tonight, there is a risk there may be some voter apathy from the anti-Jayne camp thinking their input won't be required.

Taking all the above into account these points could well force the eventual vote to come in slightly lower than our polling figure. If you held a gun to my head I would say that 65% - 70% is the most sensible place to be.

Mind you, people can say stupid things when you hold guns to their heads...

Statman

*If you'd like to receive our poll results by email - send a message to specialbets@googlemail.com and tell us if you're a gambler or simply a reality TV fan (sometimes we send results only interesting to gamblers)

Have a free £25 bet on Big Brother with our partners Blue Square
special bets specialbets big brother reality tv betting odds eviction bet pete davina aisleyne vote big brother polls who goes? eviction % prediction
Find the best prices on Big Brother with Special Bets' Odds Comparison Site