Friday, July 21, 2006

Jayne or Richard - Who Goes And What Eviction %?

Thanks for all your comments and queries on the other posts..

This will be the thread for tonight's fun and games, so open the windows - grab an ice bucket for your bevvies and let us know who you think will leave on this hot and sticky evening and what eviction % they'll get! We'll publish the final results here before the start of the live show.. Blue Square are still taking those free bets!

Now, over to Statman on the data;

Given we have just entered the eleventh hour, lets just cut to the chase.

Jayne will leave the big brother house this evening. No need to stop the press there, then. The real interesting question is what percentage she will register.

Of the 351 respondents (thanks again!) to our Friday eviction poll, 70.4% of you were tired of her gaseous outbursts. When we filter out non voters, we see that this figure drops to 70.1 %

What could cause the actual vote to differ significantly from our polling figure? In our experience in conducting these Friday night eviction polls, we find there are three things:

1. Basic sampling error (a feature of any poll)
2. A "swing" caused by a favourable eviction edit to one of the housemates
3. A common perception among voters that their choice of evictee is going anyway, so proportion of them don't actually bother voting.

Remember Lea? We think that tonight's voting environment is showing some of the same characteristics of her defeat at the hands of Big Gay Dickie. Addressing the points above:

1. In our experience we find that the result will come in fairly close to the polling figure, notwithstanding points 2 and 3. A theoretical figure would be +/- 3%

2. We have seen the edit to tonight's show and it is not a hatchet job, but does nothing to help Richard's chances and nothing to damage Jayne's.

3. This is where the similarity with Lea really lies. Because 84% of you think that Jayne is a gonner tonight, there is a risk there may be some voter apathy from the anti-Jayne camp thinking their input won't be required.

Taking all the above into account these points could well force the eventual vote to come in slightly lower than our polling figure. If you held a gun to my head I would say that 65% - 70% is the most sensible place to be.

Mind you, people can say stupid things when you hold guns to their heads...


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Anonymous Alf Garnett's PR Guru said...

What's the latest please chaps?

7:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Will have a go at 62.5% for Jayne to leave.

7:51 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Anonymous - leave some sort of name - if you get it right how will we know its you?! - TIP - click "other" and type any name you like to identify yourself..

8:00 PM  
Anonymous Reality Bites! said...

I'm going for 69% as Statman said in the last post :)

8:07 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

I have my money on 65%-70%. A posted explanation is imminent.

8:22 PM  
Anonymous balsamic said...

Under 65% would be ideal, but I agree 65-70% looks the "shizzle" as Ai!sleyne would doubtless say.
I'd equate Jayne to Lea in many ways, but I think the "getting to know you" factor weighs against her here. The Welsh also seem to have forgiven the Taff-hating sexual terrorist, so I'll hazard a guess at 67%

8:41 PM  
Anonymous ginger said...


9:04 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Why do you think that ginger?

9:05 PM  
Blogger Admin said...


Removing those that do not intend to vote = 69% Jayne.

9:21 PM  
Anonymous John Charles said...

nice job guys! I made money on above 65 and below 70% :D

9:42 PM  
Anonymous balsamic said...

Damn, 0.1% out again. ;)
Good call, the polls got it bang-on this week.
Was the Lea eviction % a sympathy vote after all? Surely not!

9:52 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Balsamic - you NAILED it! Well done.

The Lea vote - I'd rather forget about it.. fishy in the extreme...

9:53 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

John - glad you made money. that's what we're here for. When you win, we win too...

balsamic - you are attempting mission impossible to predict the vote to 0.1%. that's why I prefer to publish the poll result then suggest a range. When it comes to Lea, I am 80% confident that there were dark forces at play that day -try as I might, I simply can not explain it any other way. More than willing to discuss this further with you...

10:01 PM  
Anonymous superstar tipster said...

good call statman I was on under 70%.

11:16 AM  
Blogger Statman said...

Good for you Superstar. You deserved to make money this week through sheer persistence ;)

Keep it coming..

12:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmm I love the idea behind this website, very unique.

1:44 AM  

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