Wednesday, August 09, 2006

The Final Showdown

This is the one we've ALL been waiting for...

The record-breaking Lionheart declared war on “The Plastics” only ten days into this competition, and has been picking them off one by one ever since. His opening salvo was to accuse Imogen of being “as dull as a leek sandwich”, an insult that she has never forgiven him for.

Imogen has nominated Richard every time she has been free to do so, and Richard has returned fire, nominating her 6 out of 8 possible times.

This week they get what they want – A final showdown, head to head.

We began conducting our weekly eviction survey as soon as the nominations were announced, and this is what 225 respondents so far have told us:

62.9% of you will vote to evict the lovely Imogen. 22.3% want Richard to fall at the final hurdle, and 14.7% said you would not vote.

With the distraction of the house next door this week, and the tactical awareness of Richard the Conqueror, it is unlikely that this week will see such a dramatic swing as we did last week.

But should there be one, you will read it here first.



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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Stat
I know I say a coup is possible every week, one day I'll be right, Is this week the week?

Most polls 60/40 Imogen
Dickie at 11's will prob go to 20's
but this week surely lowest vote ever - many disillusioned people, is a deep pocketed syndicate and the Welsh enough to turn it around? Probably not, I'm still stupid enough to back Dickie outright


5:54 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8:34 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Hi ttt.. don't know where Stat is right now, he went "all in" in a poker game last night and has not been seen since!

I can't see it - not sure the Welsh see supporting Imogen in BB as a particular priority - remeber Maggot?! but never say never... Stat?

8:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've done the survey every week to date, but not been asked this week. Any reason why not?


8:43 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi ttt

Special Bets is right about the poker tournament. I went all-in with the "big slick" (Ace King) and wrongly got called by a suited Jack 9 that went on to luckily get his straight.

I don't mind losing this though, because six out of ten times in that scenario I will win. That's a good analogy for your current thinking on this week's eviction. At some point, you will get lucky one week and call the outsider and it will come in. But over the long term it's best to stay on the right side of the odds.

You will make enough money over the long term to absorb the "outside chance" shocks that may occur.


12:43 AM  
Anonymous Mal said...

Appreciate your polls Statman.

Can you remind us of the Lea v Richard prediction? I understand the final figure was a mere 53% Lea in a low turnout eviction.

If a shock happens in BB7, this is the week.

2:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reckon about 50 people will vote this week and with Dickie at 20's its financially viable


3:35 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Like I say, I don't mind getting called all-in when I'm sitting on the Big Slick.

Maybe your suited J9 will hold up this week ttt, but this is a marathon not a sprint.

I hear you on Dickie vs Lea. There were some dark forces at work that day and it's the biggest discrepancy between poll vs vote that we've ever seen.

Do you have any evidence that this will happen again or is it just a hunch?

3:59 PM  
Anonymous Mal said...

No Stat. The poll averages are 60-63 with a couple showing a lot closer (Times and Tiscaci), although there has been a very slight shift Imogens way today.

I agree about covering the % action and all I was saying was that there is a similarity between this and the Lea eviction except that Imogen is a lot less hated than Lea. As a result the low vote for a Welsh beauty queen (perceived boring) verses the number of Gay Canadian Mounties in the UK, is not an easy comparison to evaluate.

Low volume polls tend to bring more shocks and more so when it looks like a walkover. Richards polling in the Lea eviction may be an indication that his support is more flakey than the polls would indicate.

I am not advising backing him though, even if I have both options covered myself (I had predicted Imogens nomination instead of Ash, early doors).

On this one, I would however advise leaving the %age bets alone.


5:03 PM  
Blogger Admin said...


We choose different groups of people from the now huge database each week - we haven't lost your details. I'm sure you will be invited into polls in the future.

7:31 PM  
Anonymous Superstar Tipster said...

Can we have an eviction poll update please with the % both for those who are likely to vote and the % of all respondants. Thanks

I'm thinking after last nights show looked bad for Richard there will probably be a % swing towards Imogen staying.

11:35 AM  

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