Thursday, August 10, 2006

Nikki II – She's Back! And This Time It's (Slightly) Different!!

As any movie buff will know, sequels are often over hyped and rarely as good as the originals. Some exceptions to this rule have occurred (Terminator and The Godfather being the obvious ones) but they are dwarfed by a slew of cynical money-spinning “they’re back, and this time it’s slightly different”-type follow-ups.

Grease, Back to the Future, Lethal Weapon, Predator, TeenWolf, Speed, Saturday Night Fever, Karate Kid, Gremlins, Police Academy, Crocodile Dundee, the list of sequels which did nothing other than tarnish the standing of the original seems to go on and on. There was even a Dirty Dancing II, which not many people know about. Why don’t people know about it? Because it went straight to video. Why did it go straight to video? Because it was rubbish.



Based on this evidence, the likelihood is that “Nikki II” is not going to be as good as the original, and may even damage any credibility that she had in the first place.

Fortunately, I don’t have to speculate as to whether this will be the case or not because once again I have the privilege of access to the 333 responses to our most recent special survey on how you feel about the remaining, and returning, housemates.

Firstly, let’s take a look at how sequel-hungry you are about the returning housemate:



Already it’s not looking good for our generic "former housemate" – over 50% of you think it is not "morally correct " for a housemate to be evicted and then come back and beat a housemate that has been there for the duration.

This is also reflected in the rankings - whilst 37% of you say you love your favourite ex housemate, only 18% of you would hand them the trophy should they get back in - with 21% of you actually ranking them last behind all remaining housemates.


Let’s dig a little deeper into what may happen to the votes in the final week if Nikki should return on Friday. Here’s a chart which sums it up quite nicely:


Some observers may be surprised that Nikki is having such a small impact on the current voting landscape. However, given that 50% of voters have Nikki as their favourite ex-housemate, and only 22% of Nikki fans say they will vote for her on finals night, it makes sense that this leaves her with around a 11% (50% x 22%) overall voting figure. The reason the figure in the graph is slightly less than this is because a small amount of respondents contradicted themselves by saying they would vote for Nikki to win, and then did not rank her in first place in a subsequent question.

Remember, this analysis assumes Nikki has already made it into the main house, which is not (quite) a done deal just yet. I feel that the odds are stacked in her favour to get back in, however I would suggest that any speculative betting on her winning the competition on this event would be an excellent opportunity to lay her in both the outright and "without Pete" markets on Betfair.

At the risk of sounding lonely, please let me know your thoughts on the above.

Statman


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16 Comments:

Anonymous Alf Garnett's PR Guru said...

Statto, nice work but one key mistake - EVERYONE knows that Lethal Weapon 2 was superior to 1! :)

7:01 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Point accepted, but I will never forgive Danny Glover for Predator II.

7:05 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Surely your Richards a bit high isn't it?

I don't mind, he's my huge green for trading. People like a survivor, someone who's been tested by the fire. I like him for being the only person who is upfront enough to say they want the money. Plus you can't hate anyone with a sick mum.

7:07 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Anon,

If you have been following our polls you would have noticed that Richard got his big gay hands on the title of second favourite a couple of weeks ago and is refusing to let go.

Not that the betting markets would have you believe that of course..

7:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If she does get back in i don't think she would have any interest in beating her love interest Pete. She would just like to be there in the final week, and hopefully to support him when he wins.

8:35 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

I believe she said something of the sort in her column in The Sun last week.

Whether she wants to win or not, it's very hard to see how she can barring a twist several magnitudes greater than the ones we've seen so far.

8:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

great research as usual. Had come to the same conclusion myself even before Nikki went back it. Her fans seem to be dropping her by the thousands. She is seen as the public face of this Endemol farce.

Interestingly I feel looking in the forums there is one big ground swell of support for Ais, and to me she seems a great bet to win (without Pete) and also outright. If anyone is going to beat Pete its her.

1:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Spot on imo.

11:00 AM  
Blogger Joe454 said...

Interesting, nice one. However only small amounts available to lay Nikki at Betfair.

What do you think of top female between her and Ash?

11:36 AM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Joe,

I think it's an extraordinarily difficult contest to call at this stage. Aisleyne has the biggest hate crowd that have been dying to get their hands on her for some time now.

I would say that evens is a good price for this market at the moment, with the wind being behind Aisleyne right now.

Things should be clearer in a few days..

Statman

2:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How do you think Richards performance last night will affect his popularity and his chances in the with out pete market.

Have read comments on forums saying the public won't like him sucking up to Grace and getting involved in anti Aislene bitching.

Do you think this could do him significant harm or is he still a good contender, I've got him at 7/1 do you think I should lay him off.

zoomraker

3:17 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Zoomraker

We're aware that Grace's vitriol is tarnishing almost everyone she comes in contact with at the moment, and we have also read the comments on the forums that are negative towards Richard, mainly it seems because people are disappointed that he doesn't lay into Grace like he does in the diary room.

I personally am an investor in Richard's stock, and I am watching carefully for any evidence that his grip on second place is being weakned by the events of this week.

Judging by today's poll, there is no evidence of this as yet.

We will be sure to let you know as soon as we see anything alarming regarding Richard's popularity.

Incidentally, the one housemate who seems to be benefitting from all these skeletons coming out the closet is Aisleyne herself.

Keep it here for updates

Statman

3:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

why have a precession when you can have a contest?

5:10 PM  
Anonymous Myfanwy said...

I would love it if Richard romped home in second place, stunning all those happy to bad-mouth him at any opportunity. He has at least been pretty consistant throughout (and I think his opinion re. Grace will change again when he's out and has seen both sides of the story) and personally I *get* his sense of hunour. People take him too seriously and are too sensitive about his little jibes, which are said with a smile on his face, not maliciously.

Whilst I don't bet, the info from these polls I find useful in deciding who I'm going to vote for. My favourite to win is Pete, but I'm going to be voting for Richard to try to ensure his deserved second place.

11:33 AM  
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