Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Latest poll update 3.45pm

We've heard from sources close to the show that the potential "Aisleyne Hatchet Job" we've been worried about will not be forthcoming this evening.

We think that perhaps they've realised that given Nikki is so clearly ahead in the vote (as reflected in our polls) despite their attempts to arrange the contrary - any further "meddling" would be fruitless and even have the opposite effect.

We know that Brighter Productions are keen readers of forum sites like Digital and from our IP logs, even the Special Bets Blog - perhaps they've decided to let this one go..

We started a new poll this morning - Nikki now has a bigger lead than at any time of this week..

After 327 responses - Nikki has 35.8%, Aisleyne 23.9%, Suzie 15.3% Spiral 7.3%, Richard 4.9%, Imogen 3.7%, Mikey 4.9% (animal rights activists?)Michael 2.1%, Glyn 1.2%, Pete 0.9% and Jennie yet to record a score!

Looks like we'll be bidding Nikki goodbye tonight...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday's Night's Update;


Nikki has been out in front and stable in our poll. The swing we've seen in the last 2 days is away from Suzie toward Aisleyne. So why not "lump on" to Nikki at the current 2.3 type odds?

Well... BB's production company "Brighter Productions" have realised that by putting everyone up for eviction they risk losing one of the stars of the show - Nikki.

Love her or hate her, Nikki is a class "act" and
Brighter know it.

Program after program this week has been spun to show Aisleyne in a bad light and Nikki in the best possible light. Can Brighter succeed and get Aisleyne into the eviction position by Friday? We are worried that they
could, and are adopting a neutral position between the two...



Let's dig a bit deeper into the data. Aisleyne's fans want to vote for;


But Nikki's fans aren't countering Aisleyne's fans as well..


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9 Comments:

Anonymous Superstar tipster said...

Nikki looks decent value on Betfair at the moment at 1.86 and she is coming in all the time. She was 2.4 yesterday morning.

10:42 AM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Superstar,

A price of 1.86 implies the market is saying Nikki has a 53% chance of getting the boot on Friday. Comparing this to our current poll then you are right to take this price if you think that there is less than a 47% chance of favourable editing toward Nikki affecting voters over the rest of the week. Given last night was a favourable edit for her, we are waiting to see what tonight's edit will look like, given that we know from the live feeds that Nikki was up to her drunken abusive antics again late last night. If this is in tonight's show, this will imply the editors are not on a mission to save her and her price should be closer to 1.3 - 1.4 in our view. Hope this helps!

12:07 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

The pattern that appears to have been forming over the past few evictions is that something 'fishy' occurs on the Friday episode that is far out of line with just a Friday-edit.. to the point that one could argue that the betfair brigade are swaying votes themselves to make value where value once did not exist.

I wonder how much chance we have of seeing Suzie or Aisleyne becoming front runners 'during' the Friday show.

Just a thought..

6:24 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Mark,

You are absolutely spot on with your comments. We have noticed voting behaviour over the last two weeks that simply can not be explained given the polls. Even taking into account sampling error, and potential swing factor, with the size of the polls that we are conducting it is extremely unlikely that the polls would be out by more than 10%-12%. Which means maybe there are other factors at play. I calculated last week that with Lea at 1.1, there was potential for some "voters" to lay aggressively and use a portion of the proceeds to fund votes for Richard. If voting figures are subdued, this could well alter the shape of the vote with this behaviour.

We are constantly monitoring the betting sites for dubious behaviour and have not noticed anything this week yet. In my view the most leverage this week could be gained in Pete, although this would be a shock that would shake the very foundations upon which the program is based.

A campaign on Suzie or Aisleyne would be less profitable but more easily carried out without raising suspicion.

We will endevour to keep you up to date with any developments we see.

Statman

6:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah I think people were funding their phone bills with expected returns from betting. This week not sure, big turnout expected, Pete certainly wouldnt be 630 on Betfair if someone had a plan. Would be some very happy bookies if he did go though!!! Is it beyond the realms of possibility that bookies could oust him?
Problem being that if you cast 10,000 votes Channel4 are allowed to reset the votes anytime they want if they aren't getting the result they want.
thomasthetanker

10:09 AM  
Blogger Admin said...

hey thomastanker... Although we only know Nikki's eviction % - at least that aspect looked "straight". Hope you made some money - this was easily the most fun eviction contest of the series..

8:36 AM  
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