Sunday, July 09, 2006

Pete's Popularity - When Will "Perfect Pete" Stop Becoming Less Popular?

We've been asking the question "Who is your favourite remaining Big Brother contestant?" of our Survey Group 1-2 times weekly since May 22nd and have collected a total of 5673 reponses to this question in that time frame.

When Pete was receiving responses in the high 60's % we backed him heavily to win Big Brother despite the fact that at the time, we were not even 1/4 of the way through the show.

Now at the half-way point we've taken a neutral position on Pete in our prop book. As you can see in the result below from Friday's eviction survey, Pete is still in the lead in the standard "favourite" question - 35.9% of responses - but we think that it is important to take into context how this figure has
changed since the early weeks of the show.

Pete's support as first favourite has decreased by 46.1% from his highest rating of 66.6% in our June 3rd poll. As you'll notice in the chart above, Pete has been been less popular each time we've asked the group since June 9th - and this concerns us, particularly the speed at which this change is occurring.

Pete is now "catchable" to an extent he has never been before;

If we consider the poll that exhibited the peak of Pete's popularity - June 3rd - the GAP between Pete and the next most popular choice - Nikki - was massive.

For Nikki to win Big Brother (say with 50.1% of the final vote) from that period her popularity would have had to have increased by 450% from June 3rd levels for her to catch Pete. This "vote share increase target" has decreased since that point by 67.6%.

And this really is the crux of the question - who is the most credible challenger and can they catch up to Pete?

The highest % score ever achieved by a challenger - Nikki - occurred fairly recently - the 27th of June poll where she averaged out at 23.4% of the "Who Do Want To Win?" question after scoring up to 25% "intra-poll".

We'll be monitoring the situation closely, but we feel we can't weight our book back heavily in favour of Pete with so many weeks to go until he stops his popularity slide...

We'd love to hear your views on this article (Statman is a notable dissenter from our view). Leave feedback in the comments section and if you have data related questions ask there and we'll be happy to help.

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Anonymous James Broadbent said...

Its nice to see some thoughtful insight into polls - when is your next Pete update coming out? - would be interesting to see if the bleached hair fun and games gets his % upticking..

1:56 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

We'll do a pre-noms poll that should start tonight - We'll keep the "Pete Index" chart going on the site on an ongoing basis..

2:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

we all know that pete is ahead. the question is what is the probability of pete winnin?

9:02 PM  
Anonymous Gwyn said...

It would be interesting to see some more analysis of the opinion poll. e.g. how are the favourite housemates split by sex / age (is it only 40+ men who fancy Imogen?), who do people who want Nikki to win want to be evicted?

You have the numbers - have some fun with them!

9:04 AM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Gwyn,

Allow me to attempt to quench your data thirst. We have noticed over the weeks that there have been some statistically significant relationships. For example, in the dichotomy of Nikki vs Aisleyne we can see that Aisleyne fans are over twice as likely to be Nikki haters than the reverse. This is unfortunate for Nikki, since in her past three eviction battles her fans have been able to coordinate a defensive vote, however they don't appear to have the same cohesion this week. We will perform an exercise in statistically significant relationships and publish it for your pleasure. Are there any specific relationships you are interested in?

10:47 AM  
Anonymous Superstar tipster said...

Yes Pete is definitely catchable I actually think Jennie has a good chance because she seems very down to earth and likeable.

5:19 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Superstar Tipster, in today's eviction poll in the Who would you most like to see evicted this week? question Jennie has only 2 or 0.3% of the vote - even less than Pete (1.6%) so she's certainly likeable...

8:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Greets to the webmaster of this wonderful site! Keep up the good work. Thanks.

5:46 AM  

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