Friday, July 14, 2006

Nikki's Breakdown.

It has been an emotional end to an emotional week.
Here at Special Bets we like emotions (though personally I rarely have them myself) because they provide us with opportunities to bet. The emotion-based debate over whether the house will be better off tantrum-free is in its infancy.

However, the salient question that needs urgent attention today is not whether Nikki's eviction was a good thing, but how her absence will affect future voting behaviour.

The extraordinary thing is, Nikki has consistently been the second most popular housemate in our polls for nearly the whole series. In terms of fanbase "firepower", she was one of only three housemates (the others being Aisleyne and Pete) whose following could have a significant effect on voting behaviour if they acted as a group. I took a stroll through our polls to try and break down the Nikki supporters to see how 20% of the Big Brother voting public will react to their pwincess being sent into exile.

According to last week's eviction poll, the landscape of "Favourite housemate" should change as follows:

So we can clearly see that assuming most Nikki fans don't just turn off their televisions now, the biggest change is that not only has Pete lost his second closest rival, but he has picked up a substantial amount of votes.

In terms of how these new fans may vote, I would like to introduce a graphic that I call a "hate web".

If an arrow goes from housemate A to housemate B then it means that a significant proportion of housemate A's fans dislike housemate B. A red arrow indicates that the relationship translates into a significant amount of votes, and the thicker the arrow then the larger the absolute number of votes generated by the relationship. This particular web does not include Jayne because she was not up for eviction last week.

So we are left now with two dominant fanbases - Pete and Aisleyne. I would expect Aisleyne and Susie to a lesser extent to pick up votes from the increase in Pete's fanbase. The real interesting question is: where will Aisleyne fans turn their guns next? Looking back through the polls the next housemate on the Aisleyne fan's "hitlist"has been Susie.

So I would expect the pressure on Susie to increase over the next couple of weeks.

Of course, the above discussion did not include Jayne, and judging by our recent surveys she is the most disliked housemate of them all. If it were a straight Susie vs Jayne, I think hate would probably prevail.

As always, I would be delighted to discuss these ramblings further with anyone should they wish to.


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Blogger Admin said...

Just thought I should mention the full (unfiltered) results from the Friday poll;

Nikki 37.5%
Aisleyne 21.1%
Suzie 13.8%
Spiral 7.6%
Richard 5.4%
Mikey 4.3%
Michael 3.2%
Imogen 3.5%
Glyn 2.2%
Pete 1%
Jennie 0.5%
(Total Respondents 630m, conducted Friday 11am - Eviction.

3:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In light of the hard feeling that now clearly exists between Nikki fans at their "pwincess" being sent into exile, it seems that they will be looking to blame Aisleyne's "merry little gang" for the outcome - and as a result wish to damage Aisleyne's stay in the house.

I would therefore expect Aisleyne to pick up votes from Nikki fans as a result. That being the case, can you shed some light on how much 'actual' damage this might do to Aisleyne chances should she appear any time soon.

6:52 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Hi Anon - names are always nice :)

Have a look at this post;
Scroll down, the eviction responses in the last image are filtered for just Nikki's fans. You can view their negative opinions there (less Jayne but will give you an idea).

8:30 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi anon,

It is not as simple as taking ex-Nikki fans and allocating their results to Aisleyne because we have to consider the shift in preferences of ex-Nikki haters as well. I have created a distribution of votes without Nikki included as an assumption of how ex-Nikki haters would have voted had Nikki not been an option. This, along with allocating all Nikki fans to Aisleyne, gives the folowing result:

Aisleyne 38%
Susie 23%
Spiral 10%

So it can be done.

But the above ignores Jayne, who can not be caught combining ex-Nikki fans with other Aisleyne haters according to a small snap survey we did earlier this week.

Hope that helps


9:14 PM  
Blogger zoomraker said...

Love the hate chart but think it might underestimate the anti Richard feeling.

Also do you think the Nikki lovers could transfer there support to Jane.

9:42 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Zoomraker,

Thanks for the comments.

Susie ranks above Richard in terms of dislike for ex-Nikki, Aisleyne, and Pete fans, so if there is no major swelling of anti-Richrd feeling in the next few weeks I would expect Susie to go first, with Richard not following far behind. Any negative shift towards Dickie should be picked up in our polls fairly quickly, so we shall let you know if this happens.

In terms of Nikki fans supporting Jayne, we don't have as much data about Jayne as we would like because of her immunity last week. One thing we can say is that in the short snap survey we carried out, Jayne had a 44% disapproval rating, with the closest rival being Aisleyne with 17%. Nikki's fan base was around 20%, so I would expect that a campaign by Nikki fans to save Jayne and boot out Aisleyne could have a significant effect, but may just not be enough.



12:58 PM  
Anonymous Superstar tipster said...

I have some info for people. The digitalspy forums seem to be 50/50 on whether Jayne is a mole or not. This is because she is being highly disruptive and seems to be trying to annoy people more than you could believe someone would on a game show with a prize at the end of it.

However she is still odds on for the next eviction by PUBLIC VOTE on Surely these odds are too short and are therefore worth laying for a few quid. Add to the above the fact that she was made immune from the public vote last week which was her so-called reward for rule breaking. Seems more than a bit fishy to me.

10:48 AM  
Blogger Statman said...


Great minds think alike. And so do ours, it would appear.

Jayne is favourite for the very good reason that she is likely to be nominated and is likely to be voted out. However, the stench of fish is getting very difficult to ignore as you quite rightly pointed out. The way I look at it is this: What has to happen/refrain from happening for Jayne to go this week? As far as I can see the answer is:

1. There are no twists from which she is made immune from nomination
2. She is nominated by her fellow housemates
3. She gets voted out by the public
4. She doesn't get kicked out during the week for consistent rule breaking

You then take the product of the probability of each of these, invert it and you will reach the odds she should be in your opinion.

For example, in my opinion,

P(1) = 60%
P(2) = 90%
P(3) = 95%
P(4) = 80%

so 1/(P(1) x P(2) x P(3) x P(4)) = 2.43

I actually backed her as soon as the market opened and then belatedly did the above calculation and reversed my position.

Let me know what your figure comes out at...


11:30 AM  
Anonymous Superstar tipster said...

I think if Jayne is actually a mole then they surely can't let her be voted out by the public because people will complain in their thousands that they have wasted their money voting. Unless they do a double eviction, with both leaving by public vote. I think it more likely she is a mole than isn't and when you include the fact that people on digitalspy are beginning to like her she might even win a public vote. So her odds must be way too short. I think I just read a poll on digitalspy where she was 4th favourite housemate this week!!!!

3:32 PM  
Anonymous suuperstar tipster said...

I'll just add to my previous post a note of caution. I don't believe there has ever been a mole on big brother. The closest there was to one was when Makosi got set a task and she stirred things up a lot but she was just a normal contestant. So it is possible that Jayne got set a task before even entering the secret house naxt door and is still on the task now. But I still think the odds are far too short and I don't think a task has ever been set that the public did not know about in advance (by seeing the contetant being given the task in the diary room).

3:38 PM  
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