Here at Special Bets we like emotions (though personally I rarely have them myself) because they provide us with opportunities to bet. The emotion-based debate over whether the house will be better off tantrum-free is in its infancy.
However, the salient question that needs urgent attention today is not whether Nikki's eviction was a good thing, but how her absence will affect future voting behaviour.
The extraordinary thing is, Nikki has consistently been the second most popular housemate in our polls for nearly the whole series. In terms of fanbase "firepower", she was one of only three housemates (the others being Aisleyne and Pete) whose following could have a significant effect on voting behaviour if they acted as a group. I took a stroll through our polls to try and break down the Nikki supporters to see how 20% of the Big Brother voting public will react to their pwincess being sent into exile.
According to last week's eviction poll, the landscape of "Favourite housemate" should change as follows:
So we can clearly see that assuming most Nikki fans don't just turn off their televisions now, the biggest change is that not only has Pete lost his second closest rival, but he has picked up a substantial amount of votes.
In terms of how these new fans may vote, I would like to introduce a graphic that I call a "hate web".
If an arrow goes from housemate A to housemate B then it means that a significant proportion of housemate A's fans dislike housemate B. A red arrow indicates that the relationship translates into a significant amount of votes, and the thicker the arrow then the larger the absolute number of votes generated by the relationship. This particular web does not include Jayne because she was not up for eviction last week.
So we are left now with two dominant fanbases - Pete and Aisleyne. I would expect Aisleyne and Susie to a lesser extent to pick up votes from the increase in Pete's fanbase. The real interesting question is: where will Aisleyne fans turn their guns next? Looking back through the polls the next housemate on the Aisleyne fan's "hitlist"has been Susie.
So I would expect the pressure on Susie to increase over the next couple of weeks.
Of course, the above discussion did not include Jayne, and judging by our recent surveys she is the most disliked housemate of them all. If it were a straight Susie vs Jayne, I think hate would probably prevail.
As always, I would be delighted to discuss these ramblings further with anyone should they wish to.
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