Friday, June 30, 2006

Aisleyne Moves To The New House With Only 67% Of The Vote;

Aisleyne moves to the new house as we predicted but with only 67% of the vote?

This is much lower that any online poll we've seen - including our own. Take the usually reliable Big Brother Online poll as an example..

We've not been this far wrong - 12% versus the survey group's voters- since Barrymore in the CBB final and as was discussed with Barrymore's mysterious late popularity - could there have been vote rigging?

We know there was definitely some rigging, one of the smart forumites on the Betfair forum voted 1,600 times for Suzie in an effort to make money betting on Suzie to be the one that moved- and tonight's likely low vote turnout made this easier. Was this rigging more widespread than we thought?

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4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

There was no rigging it was a set up to increase Aisleynes odds your poll was too small to be anything like accurate. You also asked people which way they would vote and then undermined this survey by saying that no one would vote for Susie and that the 79% would go up.

10:52 AM  
Blogger Admin said...

Hi Anonymous.

1)There was no rigging;
-You need to read the links to the Betfair forum - one of the forumites had a good go & spent £800 on calls..

2)Our last poll was accurate to 0.1%. It is possible to produce accurate poll results from small polls - YouGov have conducted polls of 4-500 and been accurate to 1%.

3) Undermining the survey.
When we wrote the blog comments you mentioned about Suzie the survey was already completed.

The survey group's poll questions are free of bias, the survey group and the blog are seperate. The only connection is that when the poll is completed members recieve a link to the blog to view the results.

If you've any questions or you'd like to view the survey format email us at specialbetsadmin-polls@yahoo.co.uk

11:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't believe this person did spend £800 on calls, they just said they did.

What I meant about undermining the survey is that you assumed less people would vote for Susie than your survey suggested for no good reason.

12:02 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

"I don't believe this person did spend £800 on calls, they just said they did."

We actually know of this person. He sometimes bets as much in a single bet as some people spend on new cars - £800 is small change to him!

Your second point is valid, and that's why we called the prediction a "hunch" and told people to be prudent and not back over 80%. This still doesn't explain why the survey group voters were 79% for Aisleyne - 12% higher than the actual vote. Big Brother Online's polls of thousands was at 76% - they are usually fairly accurate as well...

12:13 PM  

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