Friday, June 30, 2006

The Special Bets Big Brother Eviction Prediction!

Sorry we're so late with tonight's prediction but it was JessicaInDublin's birthday! So; better late than never!
Now, first things are first. Aisleyne will be evicted from the house tonight and will join new housemates Jennie, Jayne, Glen, Michael and Jonathan.

But what about the eviction % ?

Well - this eviction is a positive vote unlike usual BB evictions which are clear negative votes - "Who Do You Want To Evict".

Tonight's poll is really a "Who Do You Like Best" situation (although its possible that some BB viewers would like to send Suzie into the other house despite liking her the least).

In our poll this week, we've made it VERY clear what's happening tonight so other online polls may be different as they do not to the same extent (bear this in mind). With all that said, here's the data since Tuesday;


All Responders - 83.1% Aisleyne

Removing Responders Who Say They Will Not Vote - 81.9% Aisleyne


Only those who have already voted or intend to vote - 79% Aisleyne



So, what's our actual prediction? Well this is a tough one. We're going to make a bit of a "hunch" call. Based on the data that we have, we view Suzie as a none entity with no fans - we can't see people picking up the phone to reward her, even if a voter doesn't like Aisleyne.

We believe that Davina will make the rules for tonight's eviction very clear to viewers as we have, and this will mean a vote % over 80% as those that like Aisleyne seek to reward her. We reckon that the vote turnout is currently very low and the real vote is something like 75-78% in favour of Aisleyne - we think there will be a swing in favour of Aisleyne - Let's take a guess and say 83% :) Most polls have Aisleyne in the low 70's - let's see who's closest!

If you are prudent - you should not touch the under over 80% market on Betfair, but we're going to have a go at the over 80% - just to keep it interesting!

Keep checking back on the blog tonight, we're going to ask our group what they think of our new housemates and will publish tonight if we have a meaningful sample size.

Special Bets

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