Tuesday, July 04, 2006

The Threat To Pete From The New Housemates;

Whilst it would appear that second-favourite Nikki is currently the main threat to Pete, there are some interesting insights thrown up by the most recent survey.

We can split the current Pete supporters into "hardcore" (those who are not giving the new housemates a chance) and, I guess, "softcore" (those who deem it too early to tell whether Pete is still their No.1).

At the moment our current poll shows that Pete has a 41.3% popularity rating.

Two thirds of these are hardcore Pete fans, with the other third being softcore.

The worst case scenario possible for Pete would be that one of the new housemates gains momentum causing all of the softcore fans and a small amount (say 15%) of the hardcore fans to defect. Let's call this new housemate "Newbie". In this extreme example, the poll would look as follows:

Pete 23.6%
Newbie 20.0%

So Pete cannot be defeated at the moment by defectors alone. The problem is, that if a new housemate were to garner such momentum in support from current Pete fans, the likelihood is that this newbie would also capture other softcore voters from other housemates. Without needing to do any sums, it's obvious that in this scenario Pete can be de-throned.

All of this assumes a drastic shift in sentiment to one of the newbies, and Pete can rest assured that barring this, it looks like the only serious challenge can come from Nikki.

Of course, she doesn't have the benefit of being a newbie and people's opinions will likely be a little more "Sticky". However, just for the record, should Nikki continue to charm the nation's voters with her outbursts, she may win over the sofcore Pete fans, making the poll look like this:

Pete 27.7%
Nikki 34.8%

So is Pete's lead impressive? Yes.
Is it impassable? Not yet.

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