Saturday, January 28, 2006

The Celebrity Big Brother Final - Review Of The Voting;

Were you surprised by Barrymore coming second? How did the Maggot beat Preston? Was Chantelle as "nailed on" to win as the polls suggested? Here's our review that should shed some light.

Here's what our CBB Finals Poll said going in to the finals night.

The voting figures that Channel 4/Endemol quotes removes the evicted housemates and then recalibrates the % for the remaining housemates. We have reversed that process to shed a little light on what happened on finals night.

CBB Place------Official Voting Figure------Actual % Of Total Vote

1st)Chantelle ----------------56%-------------------29.4%
2nd)Barrymore------------ 43.6% ------------------22.7%
3rd)Maggot ----------------23.5%-------------------16.0%
4th)Preston --------------- 16.7%-------------------13.6%
5th)Pete Burns-------------13.6%-------------------12.8%

It is the "actual % of the total vote" figure that is comparable to our poll question "who is your favourite to win Celebrity Big Brother", but this is clearly not the full story. When a housemate is evicted their supporters may then transfer their allegiance and vote for another housemate - producing very different popularity figures after evictions than before. Traci's '% of the total vote' figure is the only one we know is accurate as she was evicted first. How might the other figures have changed as Friday's show progressed?

Pete Burns Comes 5th, Evicted after Traci

Almost all Traci's supporters we've polled like Pete Burns the least - due to his attacks on her 'for fun'. Traci leaving first may then have been the difference between it being Pete or Preston next.
If we assume 1 million votes were cast in the final 2 days, (this may be a high figure as there were only 3mm votes cast in the whole 23 days) at the point of the next eviction (Pete's) Preston was only ahead by 7849 votes. Traci had 53,000 votes. - likely representing 30,000 supporters or so allowing for multiple voting. Our polls indicated Traci's fans also like Chantelle, Preston and Maggot, so if a group of those 30,000 fans voted again, Pete would not receive many of those new votes.

Why was Preston evicted so early if he was popular?

Pete Burns' eviction did Preston no favours at all. In our polls, Pete Burns' fans say they liked Maggot, Traci and Barrymore the most. They do not like Chantelle and Preston. Using the figure of 1mm votes in the final again - Pete had 128,792 votes in the last 2 days - 90,000 suporters? These supporters, if they voted again would help Maggot and Barrymore and be no help to Chantelle or Preston.

Preston's key problem in finals night though was that he has the same strong support base as Chantelle, but that support base prefers Chantelle and so vote for her, not him.
32% of voters in our poll wanted Preston to come second, but only 8% wanted him to
come first.

How Did Barrymore Come Second And Almost First?

Casual viewers tuning into the final who do not participate in internet polls may well have thought either;

"Ooh there's funnyman Barrymore" ->> VOTE Barrymore
"Ooh there's that **** Barrymore " ->>do not vote

Where as for Chantelle;
"Who's the blonde?

Further, Chantelle was the most popular housemate in our poll and although she likely gained Preston's supporter's votes after he was evicted, all other voting groups in the main did not support her. Casual, perhaps older CBB viewers (not also doing internet polls) voted for Barrymore.

If the polls had been open just a little longer (and there is talk of them being closed early) could Barrymore have actually won? THAT would have been the bet of the Specials year!

Click Here for the full results of our CBB Final poll.

If you like the look of our polls and would like to join our reality polling group please send an email with "Sign Me Up" in the title.

A special mention for a special website;

Special Bets would like to extend a BIG thank you to Pat from BBGossip for his assistance throughout the series.

BBGossip is now in its fifth year of Big Brother coverage and has an impressive archive of over 10,000 relevant articles from the press over series 3, 4, 5 and 6 (and Celebrity Big Brother 2, the panto and CBB3) along with hundreds of thousands of live updates written by users of the website. BBGossip is a place where all the news comes together, helping other Big Brother fan sites, who are quick on the draw with their own gossip and interesting articles, gain exposure for their merits and also to allow people to create their own sense of community.

Click Here for the full results of our CBB Final poll.

Bet in the Betfair Betting Exchange. Click here!


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