Christmas Number 1 2005 - All About The Downloads.

UPDATES 20/12 *"That's My Goal" is now available on ITUNES (54% share of download market). *Daily Mirror run article suggesting X Factor voters are receiving unsolicited text messages to buy the song. *Digitalspy poster recalls "That's My Goal" as a song originally rejected by Westlife in 2003.



Special Bets read the press release from the British Phonographic Industry today with interest.

BPI spokesman Matt Phillips said: "Because Christmas singles make perfect stocking fillers, the final week of the year always sees a massive boom in sales." "Although you can't put a download under the tree, seven out of ten singles are sold as downloads and they are going to play a significant part in deciding this year's Christmas Number One."

Of Course, Simon Cowell's Sony/BMG Music know this only too well and heavily promoted Shayne Ward's "That's My Goal" download (available only through 7 Digital Media) ahead of the Wednesday physical release. The Daily Star today suggested there were 25,000 downloads on Saturday night - a figure Simon Cowell claims is "record breaking" but still only represents 2% of the show's peak viewing figure.

The Official UK Chart Company is not clear on its website as to whether these sales will count given its stated rules; * Digital Singles without a physical variant will not be eligible *Digital variants of a physical single will be eligible for Chart at the point the physical formats are released.

*HOWEVER Special Bets have been contacted by the official chart company and can confirm that download sales of "That's My Goal" before Wednesday will count toward the Christmas chart. The UK official chart's automated systems actually work on the week of release (rather than actual day) so any downloads occurring in the same week as the release date of the physical product will count.

Other potential Christmas Number One contenders "Fairytale Of New York" and Nizlopi's "The JCB Song" are also available through 7 Digital Media - but unlike "That's My Goal" through the other download sites such as ITunes and Napster as well.

Its is not currently possible to download Shayne Ward's "That's My Goal" through the usual channels - such as Apple's ITUNES. ITUNES's two top selling products currently are the Nizlopi JCB Single and the Nizlopi album. Xtn research, based on a late September survey of more than 1,000 British consumers who buy music online and offline, puts ITUNES' UK market share at 54 per cent.

Monday's Top Downloads, ITUNES (does not include X Factor)

Singles

#1 JCB Song (single)
#2 All I want For Christmas (Mariah Carey)
#3 FairyTale OF New York (The Pogues And Kirsty Mcoll)
#11 JCB Song (Radio Mix)
#15 JCB Song (other format)
#19 JCB Song (EP)

Today's Top Albums;
1) Half These Songs Are About You (Nizlopi)
2 JCB Single - Nizlopi - is this the EP again?
3) Confessions on a Dancefloor (Madonna)
4) Demon Days Gorrilaz

We're assuming that the X Factor Turkey Juggernaut will run over the JCB Song for Christmas Number one this year but given the above data we think the race is far from over and Nizlopi may be worth a cheeky bet at current levels. We'll keep you updated on sales trends to try to get a better grip on what seems now a small probability.

PS, The good people at the UK official charts also reminded us that the "UK Official Download Chart" announced this coming Wednesday is based on the previous Sat Midnight - Sat Midnight sales. The period 11th December to the 17th. Therefore the "That's My Goal" sales won't affect the download chart until the one published on Wednesday 28th December.

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