X Factor - Our Latest Poll Update - Leona makes a move;
We're publishing the final results of our latest X Factor Poll today which was taken 28/10 - 30/10. Leona Lewis is the "story" this week. You are quite a fickle lot and Leona's performance of Summertime has had you dropping your allegiances to all other contestants apart from Ben like so many hot bricks.
After excluding those who did not watch Saturday's show from the the responding group of 849 you told us Leona, Ben and Ray were your favourite performances on Saturday night;
Overall, Ben remains your favourite contestant but as you can see in the bar chart below, Leona has made up a lot of ground. Eton Road clearly have supporters despite poor performance perception and make it into 3rd place;
Conclusions?
Leona's Saturday performance has been reflected quickly in the odds; but for now, we're not tempted to back her at current levels. Leona's performances before last week were quite poor in our opinion. For Leona to win this show she will need to be consistent - which is made more difficult by the show's obsession with "themes". Leona Lewis singing ABBA should be quite a challenge...
After excluding those who did not watch Saturday's show from the the responding group of 849 you told us Leona, Ben and Ray were your favourite performances on Saturday night;
Overall, Ben remains your favourite contestant but as you can see in the bar chart below, Leona has made up a lot of ground. Eton Road clearly have supporters despite poor performance perception and make it into 3rd place;
Below, last week's "overall favourite" question. Leona +12% over last week, Ben -4%, Eton Road -6%;
Conclusions?
Leona's Saturday performance has been reflected quickly in the odds; but for now, we're not tempted to back her at current levels. Leona's performances before last week were quite poor in our opinion. For Leona to win this show she will need to be consistent - which is made more difficult by the show's obsession with "themes". Leona Lewis singing ABBA should be quite a challenge...
posted by admin@specialbets.com at 10/31/2006 07:12:00 AM
3 Comments:
Do you never consider things like race and gender in your predictions? Bearing in mind past form when big favourites like Maria, Brenda, Lemar and other black singers have seriously underperformed in the public votes, despite general perception that they are some of the best contestants? Black women in particular fare APPALLINGLY badly in the public votes - do these not come into your calculations when you tell us who you think are likely to go out?
Hi Nick. Yes, of course ethnicity is a key factor on UK reality shows and yes we always take that into account. Notice at the end of the article - the Conclusion - we are not suggesting backing Leona here - quite the opposite. What we did in the aftermath of Saturday's show was to lay Leona (at about 3.7) Lay Ben (2.5) and Back Eton Road (6.6) - a simple "fade the trend" trade on the 3. We were particularly aggressive on the Leona lay due to the GBP's disinterest in voting for anyone from an "ethnic minority" - sad but true. Women also fare very poorly as females are the majority voters and tend to vote for males more than females.
Yes... I guess you don't tend to specifically say 'we think you should back so-and-so' or whatever (particularly after Aisleyne I'm sure!!)...
Obviously the Scottish vote is an interesting point too - which you've made in your next article...
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