Monday, August 21, 2006

Not A Great Day For Special Bets..

When Good Polls Turn Bad...

We are currently investigating the reasons why Aisleyne was so much more popular among our polling group last week than she was with the wider Big Brother voting public. We can assure you that we are very disappointed with the results we generated from our polling group and for those interested we are conducting a full debrief.

We will be have a full diagnostic for those that may care tomorrow.

Special Bets.


Blogger onthehushhush said...

Guys, chins up. A lot of people will crow about your loss tonight, but equally, a lot of people will benefit from your predictions in future.

keep on going.

cheers for the profits,
(you know who I am)

12:40 AM  
Blogger spindrift said...

Thanks for a great season. Shame about this one, but the final's always going to be pretty unpredictable. Your record for every other eviction speaks for itself. Keep it up :-)

2:33 AM  
Blogger 5MeoDmt said...

yeah don't worry guys it was always going to be a tough one to call especially due to the sudden 'get back at Endemol by voting for Aisleyne' cult that sprung up on DS.

There is a common feeling on the net that a lot of the online polls were rigged (most of them showed a sudden surge for Aisleyne to win by a massive margin) Is it possible that the final special bets poll was rigged? I know it's an email vote but there is nothing to stop the URL link to the questionaire being copied and sent to another 'friend' is there?

Whatever happens thnks for a great site that I will continue to use, I broke even on the final but Im still in the money from the rest of the evictions! :-)

Looking forward to X-factor :-)

9:13 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

I really do feel that from the very start the poll was deliberately skewered for one reason only – to conspire to fraud the public in the final week of the series. But then again, there is a sucker born every minute and the final week has proved just that.

It was clear that Aisleyne was pushed forward as a champion so that layers could clean up with the hysteria that was deliberately being whipped up by certain people “in the know” ..

I am shocked and surprised that SpecialBets chose to be part of this as the ‘odds’ of you getting it so wrong does give credence to those who believe foul play was part of the final weeks voting pattern.

11:12 AM  
Blogger zoomraker said...

Thanks for all your work guys, I think most reaonable people understand that you never claimed to have a crystal ball.

Looking forward to reading the debrief and X-Factor.

2:25 PM  
Blogger Joe454 said...

Don’t worry guys, you’re still appreciated. Some suggestions:

Fans like us can watch every HL show. Let’s call them “7x” for 7 times a week.

Find out what the average for BB voters is, I’m sure it’s nearer 2 HL shows / week (“2x”).

Find out if 2x vote differently from 7x.
Find out who answers your polls.

My guess (and that’s all it is) is that 7x vote differently, are a minority of voters, and are the only ones who would be interested in answering your email polls.

For a little bit on Wednesday’s HL show and a lot of Thursday’s Pete showed a hitherto hidden unpleasant aspect of his character. 2x would have missed that. More importantly, would 2x have seen the depth of Aisleyne’s personality in comparison to Pete’s?

More importantly still, Aisleyne’s increasing popularity was probably a self nourishing meme that was not available to people who don’t follow BB online, ie 2x.

If my guess’s are right (they may be wrong) then you should try to get a decent amount of 2x to reply and take any bias in the demographic of who was polled into consideration.

Maybe you already do all this?

9:38 PM  
Blogger mills427 said...

I echo the views of 5MeoDmt in thinking that somehow your poll was manipulated. I am not for one moment suggesting that you did the manipulating, but that somehow people saw that they could scew your poll in order to further their own cause.

A few factors that may be of interest, or may not:

1) Someone mentioned on the betfair forum that they had voted for Aisleyne twice in your poll. It worries me that fellow gamblers actually take part and the possible implications of it (though I appreciate it's hard to stop).

2) At another time on the forum, I defended your poll against standard internet polls only to be told that 'maybe someone signed up using multiple email accounts, or multiple persons acted' in order to scew the poll. I took this to be opinion, though maybe it was something more.

3)5MeoDmt said... "I know it's an email vote but there is nothing to stop the URL link to the questionaire being copied and sent to another 'friend' is there?"

A search in google 'Find web pages that contain the term ""':

Reveals a link to a poll I believe might be yours (I could be wrong):

Is it possible that your poll URL was spidered by google, or that someone passed on the URL maliciously in order to alter the poll? Did you track the IP addresses and identities of voters? If not, and a link to a survey was simply emailed me people with no log in process required, it seems very likely that someone could distort your results

Please don't be disheartened by the final result. I know it's the one people remember, but you did so well over the rest of the series, that to diminish that would be unfair. Hopefully you will come to some kind of conclusion about what went wrong, whether it was malicious or simply Aisleyne fan fever. I would like to think it's the latter, and that casual fans made a massive difference to the result, but I really don't know.

3:44 AM  
Blogger Joe454 said...

mills427 The support Aisleyne got in most of the polls was mirrored by forum comments. Therefore it was genuine internet support.

It just didn't infect the majority-casual voter who doesn't follow BB online.

7:25 AM  
Blogger spindrift said...

I think the lesson to be learned is not to bet on the final :) This site has done very well in predicting every other eviction all season; the final's the one that casual viewers take interest in, and skew the voting wildly. BB contestants aren't like horses (except for Grace :D ), in the final week their form has abolutely nothing to do with the subtleties of their past performance.

Please keep predicting the weekly outcomes!

1:36 AM  
Blogger Haydn said...

I'm interested that none of your respondents have identified the Welsh factor for the Glyn discrepancy.

On Welsh Channel Four we had programme Idents with Glyn's image as a cartoon, one hour of programming (7.00 - 7.30 and 9.30-10.00) where everyone from the leader of Plaid Cymru to the top selling Welsh language bands were reciting 'Glyn to win'. Indeed the programmes did not show any other phone numbers than the one for Glyn.

I realise Wales does not have a huge population, but I suspect the Welsh factor was unrepresented in your polling. Which may not explain the Pete/Ash difference but does, I believe, account for some of the misrepresentation of the Glyn vote.

8:53 AM  
Blogger thomasthetanker said...

Hi guys

Post mortem, You was hacked
A bit late now but it'll be new respondents telling you what you want to hear -
female, 20-35, never bet on BB, always vote.

I reckon your poll might have changed the odds by 10%, considering the amounts invested, setting up 30 email accounts to hack a poll is worthwhile.

Thanks for all your efforts, those drinks are on hold for the moment!

Bring on the X factor!!!!

7:08 PM  
Blogger Joe454 said...

No reply to my long post above. Maybe you guys were just part of the massive Aisleyne ramp. Nice one.

2:32 PM  
Blogger the old kid on the block said...

I think the real shame is that I have seen at least one post on the Betfair forum from specialbets saying "Calling the insiders" with the content being "hello!!!!!!!!!" with regards to the Imogen/Susie v Michael/Spiral eviction.

It is obvious there is a huge amount of inside money in the final week on the outright market. The problem is that by encouraging people to follow the specialbets final poll (not 100% accurate) specialbets readers are having their bets matched against people who know the actual vote (which is obviously 100% accurate as an indication of how each contestant is doing).

It is no exaggeration to put forward the theory that Specialbets may have encouraged the biggest single transfer in specials history from genuine punters to insiders.

The multiple usernames on the betfair forum continually bumping the specialbets website to the top were also a shame, they weren't really necessary.

The people suggesting Glyn wasn't polling well clearly don't have access to accurate polls. Aisleyne was gaining on Glyn and Pete on the night, not struggling as some idiots have written, after Nikki was evicted. Another month in the house, and perhaps she could have won the whole thing.

5:55 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Hi everyone. Thanks for your interest. We're still working on the diagnostic and want to get all our figures/facts right before we publish. Your comments/feedback are really helpful - I only wish we'd had more of your views in finals week - we might have done slightly better!

One matter I would like to put to bed is that we profited from any "ramping" in the final - we did not, and lost considerable sums in the W/O Pete and the Outright markets and with the help of Betfair this will be clear to all.

6:18 PM  
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3:36 AM  

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