Sunday, January 28, 2007

Celebrity Big Brother: Finals Night - Our Thoughts;

Happy Finals Night to you all.

We have been conducting a final poll on the remaining housemates to establish the likely finishing order this evening. Here are the results at time of writing:

The momentum that we first picked up two weeks ago for Shilpa looks very likely to see her first past the post this evening.

The A-Team v The Jackson 5 showdown for second place continues to interest us, with Jermaine having his nose in front of Face. Looking at the betting markets, it would appear that the value play is Dirk, given that it could well be a close call, and he is currently trading above 4 on betfair in the winner without Shilpa market. The Poll of Polls would suggest this isn't a crazy thing to do.

The edit for tonight's show does nothing really to endear Jack to the audience, who is already struggling to find any support at all. On this basis we would expect Jack to be leaving first tonight, however no value is to be had on the betting exchanges which seem to be pricing this fact in.

Jack will not leave the house alone. The first eviction will be a double eviction, with four single evictions over the remainder of the evening. Who will be leaving with Jack is a close call between Ian and Danielle.

Danielle features highly in tonight's edit, denying to Ian that she ever did anything wrong during the Oxo-based "troubles". Whether this will reflect well on her or not we can't say, however if we were forced to make a call we would probably say that she hasn't done enough to warrant a finish higher than 5th, leaving the fence-sitting Ian to take fourth place, although my colleague "The Admin" has a "fun bet" on Ian Watkins to be first out at odds of 99-1

In summary,

1) We can not see how Shilpa Shetty can not win tonight, so we would back her here at 1.25 odds and maybe lay off at the 1.1 odds or below that we expect will happen on the exchanges before the result.

2) Jermaine Jackson is more likely to come second than Dirk tonight in our view, but we would still back Dirk in the "Without Shilpa" market on Betfair above decimal 4 odds - as we believe he's not as far behind as some people think.

3) Ian "H" Watkins is a value "fun money only" bet for 6th eviction at the 50 - 100 type odds available earlier on Betfair.

4) Jack Tweedy is a better bet for "6th Eviction" than Danielle - we struggle to find fans for Jack and Danielle has a bigger "buzz" around her which can only help in a positive vote.

Latest odds from our odds comparison site are available here;

As we've said before, no poll we know of (not even ours) can claim to be truly representative of a finals night audience and capture potential new voters or capture "swing" that may occur during the show. Surprises do happen. Don't bet more than you can afford and don't rely on any poll to make you money, the advice we give is just a guide.


Anonymous Maloolaboo said...

Excellent stuff Special Bets. Your advice concurs with my own thinking.

Nice to get super odds on someone so far ahead in the polls.

Good Luck for tonight.


8:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good skills

8:12 PM  
Anonymous Badger said...

Well done lads.

Was already on Shilpa, got Jack for sixth eviction, and made a bit out of laying Ian in the top 3 market.

Had a bit of a dabble on dirty Dirk for second, but but came out healthily up on the day.

Thanks for the hard work - keep it up!

11:40 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

Thanks Mal, Anonymouse and Badger. The only shame is that there were no really difficult questions in the end, Only the 6th Eviction was tight.
AND the lack of evictions during the series. Hey ho. We'll keep on trucking...

10:43 PM  

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