Monday, January 15, 2007

CBB Polls Update: The Vultures Begin To Circle..

Before "mum" Carole had even finished her eviction interview on Friday night, the kids back in the house were already playing up. We're not really sure what the fracas was about, and neither were the participants, but one thing that we can be sure about is the viewing public's reaction.

We conducted a poll over the weekend which displayed a remarkable concentration of dislike directed towards Jade, Danielle and Shilpa, which seems to be a direct consequence of their eviction night brawl. The only other housemate that receives any negative attention is Jack. Having promised to "come out of his shell" last week, his "shell" turned out to be not the only thing he was to come out of - whilst the other housemates lay awake around him. Not a great vote winner that. (Meanwhile he keeps refering to Shilpa as a w***er? Irony that would make Shakespeare proud..)

Here are the numbers:

The real interesting disliked housemate is Shilpa - the reason being that she also features heavily in the "most liked" housemate question:

We have seen this sort of "polarising" housemate before - that is, they have both a significant like and dislike reading in the polls. Nikki Graham and Pete Burns both exhibited such a profile, and whilst they were certainly "characters", their critics got to them before the end of the show.
We would suggest that unless Shilpa can somehow convince those that dislike her otherwise, then she is going to have trouble should she find herself up against a "non-disliked" celebrity in an eviction later on in the show.

A simple but interesting take on this is to subtract the dislikers from the likers, something which we have done here:

A very respectable second place for Shilpa, yet her dislike rating sticks out like, well, like it's ten times as large as that of other well-liked housemates.

Once again, the momentum chart throws up a few interesting points:

Shilpa certainly has the wind behind her back at the moment, with her main competition Cleo remaining static, and support for Dirk taking a slight dip. Jermaine is benefitting from his increased exposure on the show, however support levels remain too low for him to mount a serious challenge.

One more chart worth looking at - the general polling landscape:

In summary, Shilpa has garnered enough support over the past couple of days to make her the viewers favourite housemate, and this has been reflected in the betting markets with her odds contracting. However, we find it very difficult to back her here on the basis of the dislike documented above. Until this negative sentiment abates, she will be vulnerable to both nomination within the house, and eviction against a less disliked housemate.




Anonymous Nick Edwards said...

The year of the Ethnic winners... Leona. Mark. And now Shilpa! Come on SHILPA!! :D

11:03 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Nick,

How do you think Shilpa would do in a six-way eviction between her, Dirk, Cleo, Jermaine, Ian and Jo?

Remember Nikki? She was always safe because her fans could coordinate a defensive vote in a two way eviction, but she fell when everybody was up.

If things don't change, once Jade, Jack and Danielle are gone she's going to have to be lucky..

11:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure Jo would go in that scenario. I'd say Jade, Jack and Danielle are absorbing a lot of the negativity that would be heading in her direction if they were not there.

7:05 PM  
Anonymous maloolaboo said...

Excellent article and great graphs Statman.

The racism that exists in Britain today may well be less than it was 100 years ago, but nothing changes overnight and anyone with their feet on the ground will recognise that the sentiment in the current political climate has certainly increased ethnic tensions.

As one very famous black man said " a coloured contestant has to be 50% better than their rivals to win a reality show".

Leona was one such example and yet only won by a 20% margin and it will be a long long time before we see another ethnic contestant with such an advantage over their Btitish counterparts. Shilpa is indeed in trouble if nominated and although there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth as there was when Nikki got evicted, the runes are there for the reading.

I actually dont care who wins according to my book (with the possible exception of Dirk), but Ian (statistically) has a better chance of winning than Shilpa and thats a horrifying thought.

Shilpa needs all the C4 protection she can muster to avoid elimination and her current favourite status doesn't truly reflect her 70% chance of being evicted.

11:24 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Thanks Mal.

It's been a difficult day for non Shilpa backers. The media is turning these childish spats into front page news - and it was even discussed in the house of commons!

One thing that is for sure is that Danielle, Jade and Jo are more likely to go before Shilpa does.

Once she is left there with the uncontroversial housemates this issue should begin to die down.

And I still maintain, if that dislike rating is still there, she will struggle to convert her strong favourable poll into a victory.

12:30 AM  
Anonymous Nick Edwards said...

But remember this series is only 25 days long - we're up to Day 15... if Jade is evicted on Friday as seems to be likely that will be Day 17... only a WEEK before the final... it's not like we've got long to change our allegiance to someone else - and Shilpa (with all this interest from the media) is just going to continue to gain support from floating voters.

I'm pleased I picked up on her just before the media did and got her at odds of 5-1... I don't bet much on these things, but it's nice to make SOME profit out of the disgusting thing that BB has turned into this year.

7:52 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

I would like it to be known that the admin was on Shilpa at 7s and is still to lay off. Statman took a while to cotton on.. but hey, what's new :)

10:08 PM  
Anonymous Nick Edwards said...

Why no more articles?! Lots has happened this week! LOL!

12:52 PM  

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