Friday, June 23, 2006

Special Bets 5th Eviction Prediction!

We've read through the spoiler this evening (posted below) and there's nothing much in there to cause a big swing away from Lisa in the polling in our view, so what's our call? This is Maths Geek (or Statman's) big moment so we'll leave the analysis to him - over to you MG - PS did you really send stalker -style letters to Carol Vorderman?

Hi, thanks Special Bets, the probability of you accusing me of stalking Carol Vorderman on here is so high it crashed my Apple Mac.. anyway.. I've taken a long hard look at the data you've presented me with and the numbers are telling me that your responders this week have placed the eviction % almost "bang on" 60%, with a 4% confidence interval either side. The key factor right now is how the swing voters will act, and I suspect that over 50% of the voters do not act until eviction night.

Looking at the data you've presented me with and at the most recent trend it would appear that initial enthusiasm for Lisa is giving way to a late run for the other housemates.

On that basis I would expect that the actual result (currently 60.4%) will fall within the -4% rather than the +4% confidence range. Of course, whilst the numbers are our friend we can only work with what we have and as Vanessa Williams famously once said "sometimes the snow comes down in June" Thanks! Statman