Special Bets 5th Eviction Poll - Results So Far!

We've finally got our Oxford University Maths Grad Geek to have a look at our poll for us this week to do some statistical analysis- he's put together some well, interesting stuff but maybe completely useless - more about him later.

We're having a record response to this week's poll from our ever-increasing survey group and we should be well over 1000 respondents by tomorrow - the biggest non-anonymous Big Brother poll in the world? Let us know if there's a bigger one!

OK, so on with the data...


Asking all 844 responders (Weds - Thurs)
A whopping 89% of you think Lisa is a gonner...


And you would seem to be right;

What about Lisa's eviction %?

Well those of you who told us you were actually going to vote were more in favour of evicting Lisa..

So, 61.6% seems to be a better figure.. so over to the Maths Geek... what have you to add?



Thanks! I prefer to be known as "Statman" but whatever... We can deduce how large the margin of error between your survey and the the actual population vote is likely to be using a measure called standard error.




Put simply, the standard error is a measurement of the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample statistic (which in your case is eviction percentage).

Using this, and the size of your sample, I calculate that you can be 95% confident that the actual eviction percentage will fall within +/- 5.44% of your survey result. It's worth pointing out that as your sample size increases, your margin of error shrinks, albeit at a marginally decreasing rate. For example, if you doubled the amount of responses and yielded the same result, the margin would fall to +/- 3.01%

Isn't maths fun.

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We hope the Maths Geek has something erm... more usable for tomorrow so we can get our bets on the right evictee %

We will update you on the final results tomorrow and will unveil out first ever spoiler survey to try to work out what effect the highlight show will have on the final evictee %. The Geek is supposed to be making sense of it all for us - so we'll see. Thanks for all the feedback poll fans!

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