Thursday, June 22, 2006

Special Bets 5th Eviction Poll - Results So Far!

We've finally got our Oxford University Maths Grad Geek to have a look at our poll for us this week to do some statistical analysis- he's put together some well, interesting stuff but maybe completely useless - more about him later.

We're having a record response to this week's poll from our ever-increasing survey group and we should be well over 1000 respondents by tomorrow - the biggest non-anonymous Big Brother poll in the world? Let us know if there's a bigger one!

OK, so on with the data...

Asking all 844 responders (Weds - Thurs)

A whopping 89% of you think Lisa is a gonner...

And you would seem to be right;

What about Lisa's eviction %?

Well those of you who told us you were actually going to vote were more in favour of evicting Lisa..

So, 61.6% seems to be a better figure.. so over to the Maths Geek... what have you to add?

Thanks! I prefer to be known as "Statman" but whatever... We can deduce how large the margin of error between your survey and the the actual population vote is likely to be using a measure called standard error.

Put simply, the standard error is a measurement of the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample statistic (which in your case is eviction percentage).

Using this, and the size of your sample, I calculate that you can be 95% confident that the actual eviction percentage will fall within +/- 5.44% of your survey result. It's worth pointing out that as your sample size increases, your margin of error shrinks, albeit at a marginally decreasing rate. For example, if you doubled the amount of responses and yielded the same result, the margin would fall to +/- 3.01%

Isn't maths fun.

We hope the Maths Geek has something erm... more usable for tomorrow so we can get our bets on the right evictee %

We will update you on the final results tomorrow and will unveil out first ever spoiler survey to try to work out what effect the highlight show will have on the final evictee %. The Geek is supposed to be making sense of it all for us - so we'll see. Thanks for all the feedback poll fans!

Special Bets


Anonymous Andrew said...

Would be happy if they all left!!!

10:41 PM  
Anonymous Cameron said...

you guys are buggers for setting the whole anti-rich group up at once, when Rich also broke rules this last week and he remains unpunished.. but anyway.. that's 'reality' tv for you :).. don't actually want any of the people up to go.. dammit

10:42 PM  
Blogger Admin said...

er Cameron - we are not Channel 4! ;)

10:42 PM  
Anonymous MSV said...

Every week you ask me who is my 1st & 2nd favourite HM? Well each week I have to tell you a lie because I don't like anyone of them!! BB7 is pure crap but I keep watching hoping that they'll put in a couple of outspoken black HMs to stir things up & put "black" Aisleyne in her place.

10:43 PM  
Anonymous Phil said...

Lisa is too bad tempered,Richard is a pain & poor nikki is great fun

10:44 PM  
Anonymous pinkmeister said...

keep up the great work! i no longer have satellite tv and i rely on sites like yours to get my BB fix!!

10:45 PM  
Anonymous Nik said...

It's interesting to note that although I most dislike Lisa I will be voting for Imogen. This is a tactical vote as I wouldnt expect the house to put her up again, perhaps until the last 3 or 4. Whereas Lisa will most likely be up again very soon. You should ask the question "Is the person you most dilike the person you are going to vote for?" Then: "If not Who?"

10:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually hoped you would tell me Mikey was leaving, I'm dissapointed I looked now :'(

10:21 AM  
Anonymous Myfanwy said...

Nik, they already get that info. from asking the questions "Who are you going to vote for?" and then "Who do you dislike the most?". I dislike Mikey the most, but it's Lisa's time to go (BB will never let them get drunk while she's there). In fact they have tons of info if they choose to use it - ever wanted to know what percentage of 14 year old boys love Glyn? This survey could give you your answer! :O lol. Hmmmm...I'm sounding like Math Geek's girlfriend....

11:47 AM  
Blogger Admin said...

myfanwy - you might think you're sounding like Math Geek's girlfriend but I'm pretty convinced he doesn't have one..He sends a lot of spooky maths stalker-style messages to Carol Vorderman though - does that count?

7:19 PM  

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