Friday, December 01, 2006

I'm A Celebrity: Final Show.

The I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here final night is upon us.

In the shock of the season, David Gest completed a dramatic fall from both grace and market favourite last night as he was out-voted by Matt Willis who squeezed into the final three.

There was not a great deal of evidence of his drop in popularity in the polls, which continued to show a two horse race between Jason and David right up until last night, with Myleene leading the chasing pack. After a period of around 10 days of wondering whether Myleene was actually still in the jungle, she burst back onto our screens with some solid Bushtucker Trial performances and a shower scene rivaling that of the movie
Psycho in term of memorability.

The polling landscape is now slightly confused, with the only consistency amongst them being that Matt Willis continues to poll substantially below Jason and Myleene.

We could ask the question - where will the allegiance of David Gest fans now go? We have mined our surveys to establish who the second favourite celebrity of Gest fans is, and it turns out to be 50% Jason and 25% Myleene.
However, given that these supposed Gest fans didn't turn out to vote for him last night, we have to be dubious that we can read any significant meaning into whether they will indeed impact the final vote this evening.

We have been running a three-way finals poll since last night's show, and the results are as follows:

This result echos the findings of the good people at which showed Myleene 52%, Jason 44%, and Matt on a lowly 4%.


Notwithstanding swings due to the content of tonight's show, the winner looks to be coming from Jason or Myleene, with Myleene having the momentum right now. Given that she is still behind Jason in the betting markets, she could well be worth backing here at 2.5 with Jason trading at evens at time of writing. However, Jason
must be kept onside tonight as he remains well within reach of grasping the crown of King of the Jungle.

Good Luck

Special Bets

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Anonymous Nick Edwards said...

I'm starting to feel a little bit sad for poor old Special Bets... 2 big reality TV show results wrong in the space of 4 months!!

One thing that I think is always going to be a problem, is that the sample of people that go on the internet and take part in your poll, is just not the same as a standard cross-section of society. An example, I can think of straight away is the disproportionate number of gay people that use the internet as opposed to their relative smaller numbers in the full population of the country. The affinity of gay voters to female contestants is bizarre, but completely and utterly true - and so as I result I think your votes often are skewed in favour of women, more than they actually end up performing (Myleene and Aisleyne being cases in point - maybe it's just people that have difficult names to spell, thus losing valuable text votes!)

ALSO, once again I have to bring in ethnicity. If Myleene Klass had won tonight, she would have been the first ever winner of a reality TV show, celebrity or non-celebrity, in the UK, of any heritage other than caucasian. I think it's certainly POSSIBLE for someone of an ethnic minority to win one of these shows - but I would hazard a guess that for them to win, in reality, they are going to need to have a far clearer margin on your poll than Myleene had - for some reason, just like the girls, the ethnic minorities seem to poll better on online polls than in the real polls.

Just a few thoughts.

11:52 PM  
Anonymous maloolaboo said...

Having just read the utter twaddle written about Special Bets, their polling population and their analysis, I feel that some comment on these issues is justified.

Firstly, the Special Bets polls have been bang in line with all the other polls throughout IACGMOOH and in fact have been closer to the mean values than most. If one argues that the SPB demograph is incorrect then one has to assume that all the polls run on the series are also incorrect. The balance of male v female participants in the SPB is identical to the phone voting population and again identical to all other polls. To argue that SPB contains a higher proportion of Dig Spy viewers than other polls is also a fallacy since their demograph is not related in any way to Dig Spy, nor is this true for any other poll with the exception of the Dig Spy poll itself.

To state that Special Bets poll was rubbish throughout IACGMOOH is also therefore to imply that all polls were rubbish throughout IACGMOOH. And we know this NOT to be the case. EVERY single elimination up to David’s departure was called correctly, not only by Special Bets but also by the vast majority of the substantial and respected polls. All the polls showed David, Jason and Myleene leading the pack with no other single celebrity having more than 6%. Outsiders is correct is his praise of SPB insofar that they called an anomaly versus the poll in David’s case viz his 6/1 was well out of line with the poll and that he was at exceptional value odds. Punters who availed of SPB’s advice at the time were rewarded with a massive drop in David’s odds from 6/1 to odds on and a very healthy trading profit.

The Finals poll, including SPBets offering, all showed Matt trailing a poor third in the final trio evening and indeed betting odds of 100-1 is testimony to the fact that not only were the polls correct but that popular opinion (including betting opinion) concurred.

What actually happened here is that Myleene beat Jason (as predicted by SPB and other polls) but Matt leapfrogged both of the 2 main contenders due to some unknown or not obvious turnaround. On the face of it, David supporters and anti Jason fans, left floating, may have decided that the final Bushtucker Trial was enough to swing their vote towards Matt or that there was some organised (but as yet undiscovered) support to give Matt a huge organised vote on Finals day. Whatever the reason for the turnaround in Matt’s vote contradictory to all the polls or whatever conspiracy theory folks prefer to believe, one thing is clear, and that is that this result was extraordinary and unpredictable.

Whenever a single poll gets things wrong, there can be many reasons why but whenever ALL the polls have it wrong there is usually only one solitary reason and that is that NONE of the polls succeeded to pick up some last minute momentum that altered opinion. Polls were wrong about Victor in BB5, but we all know that the 11th hour massive turnaround was solely down to his fight with Shell. This is an example of a last minute momentum change. Betting without the evidence of popular opinion is the realm of fools and whether we recognise the criteria by which we judge any contest, polls, odds, word of mouth etc, they are all a form of a concatenation of popular opinion and are best expressed through a population testing mechanism ie a poll. The interpretation of polls is an art. It requires a lot of experience and Special bets have, in the past, been open and honest in its acknowledgement that it may have evaluated Ashleyne’s late prominence and momentum in the polls better, but nevertheless the girl did finish top woman and 3rd runner up.

In IACGMOOH, there is not one single pundit or poll interpreter who correctly before the event, predicted a Matt win.

The result was simply unpredictable.

(article from Mals Place Forum)

10:37 AM  

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