Thursday, November 09, 2006

X Factor Poll Of Polls Update

First of all we have to put a big shout out to the boys and girls on the Betfair Forum who have this week been passionately debating the pros and cons of our work.

The Special Bets team is warmed by the fact that even our harshest critics continue to pop in and see us.

Now, back to the shop. Here's our weekly update of the polls out there on the information superhighway:

At the risk of being accused of ramping Leona's price, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that she seems to be stretching her lead ahead of Ben in the polls. We have not indicated that we think Leona will actually win the competition, and the Special bets poll has been one of the more conservative polls when it comes to her showing. For the avoidance of doubt we will provide clear views on the front runner's current prices and our views in future.

Here are the reactions from our polling group to last week's show. Eton Road was your favourite performance;

And they've improved their standing overall, but Leona and Ben are your favourites overall;

So what can we say about this week's elimination? This is where we would like to introduce you to our new toy. It is the "fair odds" calculator that we showed screenshots of last week. An interactive version can be found here. Simply fire it up, input your views on the prejudices of the judges and the likely pecking order, and as if by magic you fair odds will appear. Enjoy!

For those that are looking for suggestions as to what a sensible input model might be, I would like to point them towards Mal's Place, where as always, some excellent analysis on this week's elimination resides.

Finally, I would like to leave you with something a bit different this week. The self proclaimed youtubing "No1 Tipster On The Internet" expressing the emotion of anger through the medium of dance.

"Betfair" is the monicker this tipster uses on He's currently advocating backing Eton Road, and laying Leona and Ben & is very suspicious of our polling. Enjoy.


Anonymous Nick Edwards said...

It's FANTASTIC! I'm really excited!!

My odds worked out as:

Macdonald Brothers 0.46 (fair odds: 2.2)
Nikitta 0.26 (fair odds: 3.85)
Robert 0.19 (fair odds: 5.26)
Ray 0.10 (fair odds: 10.53)

Interestingly very close to the real Betfair odds:

(Maccy Ds 2.56; Nikitta 3.5; Robert 5.4; Ray 6.4)

I think the public are underestimating Ray a little (and my odds reflect this)... he's still never come bottom 2 and I think he's got a rather large following despite his not that great voice.

Fabulous work this week!! :D

7:39 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Hi Nick,

Glad you like it.

For what it's worth, here are my fair odds results:

MacD 2.2
Ray 4.7
Nikitta 3.98
Robert 12

The reason Robert is so high is not because I don't see him coming in the bottom two, indeed i've allocated 20% to all the pairs he could be in and distributed the rest evenly through the other pairs.

The fact is I believe Robert has an advantage over all other acts this week.

Verses the MacDonalds, it is 99% certain Simon will exorcise his Macdougal demons. Against Ray and Nikitta, it will once again be Louis deciding who goes. On the basis that he is in the habit of upsetting Simon, I have allocated Ray a 30% chance of survival and Nikitta 10%, given Louis was quite harsh to her last week.

What figures did you have as inputs?



9:13 PM  
Anonymous Nick Edwards said...

Cant' remember what I used now.. lol

From top to bottom it was along the lines of:


I think the most likely result is a Nikitta vs Robert bottom 2... and I think Ray is the safest from the bottom 2.

The only clear cut decisions of the judges are if Maccy Ds are in the bottom 2 though - and even if that were the case, I reckon they're not DEFINITE.

9:57 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Ok Nick, I see where our views differ now.

We agree that Robert is the most likely to find himself in the bottom 2 tonight, and that makes sense, since he hasn't fluffed a song so far, yet has been there twice. Evidence would suggest that for whatever reason, he simply does not have voter appeal not matter how well he sings.

You are being slightly more bullish towards Nikitta being in the bottom two, something which I don't fully agreee with because, whilst shes in the danger zone, she seems to be at the top of it. Ray however has been falling in the polls and, whilst it will be tight, given that Nikitta can only improve from last week, relatively Ray has a danger of disappointing.

Loius called Ray a one-trick swing pony last week, and "Crazy Little Thing Calld Love has once again got a swing feel to it, with its walking baseline. Interestingly I'm not saying he's more likely to go than Nikitta, I'm just saying that he's more likely to go in my opinion than the market is saying.

Maybe Ray does have a large following, but I have seen no evidence for it. Nt making the final two so far doesn't necessarily mean he has a large fanbase, only that it's bigger than the two smallest each week so far...

1:56 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Statman i wish i had listened to you about this week being Roberts week - did my nuts

12:26 PM  
Blogger Statman said...

Don't be too hard on yourself Anon.

The sympathy card that Robert pulled out last night came out of the blue and totally changed the shape of the game - I had him as very likely to be in the bottom two going into the show...

2:27 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home