Monday, October 16, 2006

The Results Of Our 2nd X Factor Survey - Your Live Show Reactions - Ben Gets Out From Behind The Keyboard!

Today we're releasing the results of our poll to gauge the public reaction to the first live show. The poll was conducted from Saturday evening to Sunday and was a 50/50 mix of our survey group responders and members of the public who have some interest in X Factor but have never responded to one of our surveys before. This is a follow-up to our earlier survey from before the live shows commenced, showing Ray as the early front runner.

We did not ask those who had not seen the live show (19.8%) any further questions.

Below is a strange response in that the perception was that Dionne had had a good show - but clearly lacked actual votes, ending up in the bottom 2. There are not enough enough responses (349) to get a really accurate fix on who should have gone - future surveys will be around 1000 responses and we'll have more to say about this.

Overall, we've seen a big swing to Ben - clearly stimulated by the reaction to his top-rated performance in the live show above. Kerry, Robert, Dionne, The MacDonald Brothers and 4Sure all look lke they are just a bad performance away from the dreaded (bottom 2).

We made an attempt to filter actual voters from the 486 responders....

Just The Declared Voters - The numbers of actual declared voters are small (70) and so much more likely to be inaccurate - take the below with a big pinch of salt.

Ben comes out better among this small group and worryingly the lovely Nikitta looks very vunerable (but the numbers at the unpopular end are too small to be meaningful).

So what are the betting conclusions we can draw from the data?

Clearly Ben (currently trading at 3s or 2-1) is a worthy favourite. He's perceived favourably for his performance on the live show and this bodes well to avoid the dreaded bottom 2 - but what else? Eton Road appear to have won themsleves some fans out there from their rendition of "My Girl". The show is likely to want to keep a group in the show until near the end at least so if Eton Road are the most popular group - their current price of 13s/12-1 looks appealing.

We would caution against backing the current favourites to leave next week - The MacDonald Brothers. There are a number of acts that look unpopular in the survey - The MacDonald's are far from alone in their unpopularity. However their performance last week lacked any spark and they still avoided the bottom 2 - they appear to have some loyal regional support - we think they may yet again see another week - the Rod Stewart theme for next week may even suit them.

The latest X Factor Elimination prices are here;
X Factor Winner prices are here;

Special Bets.


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