Hearing Results Of The Largest Lib Dem Leadership Phone Poll Yet Conducted;
We've had our ears close to the ground and we're hearing today about results of what we think must be the largest telephone canvass of Lib Dem members so far...2000 Lib Dem members were contacted in the 6 day period ending Feb 19th and asked the question "Who have you voted for - first and second preferences?"
These figures were then adjusted for the natural bias involved with a partisan canvasser (we do not know of the exact reduction factor).
Special Bets have heard that Menzies Campbell is "marginally" ahead of Chris Huhne with Simon Hughes in 3rd place but "not as far behind as some of the more dire predictions for Simon".
The key piece of information is that among Simon Hughes supporters, their 2nd preferences are very encouraging for Ming - with "Over 60%" expressing Ming as their 2nd preference choice.
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If this information is reasonably accurate (and we believe it is) a scenario might be;
Ming 36% / Chris 35% / Simon 29%
Hughes 2nd Prefs are allocated
RESULT = Ming Win 53.4%
or, if Simon's 1st preference share is lower, and more like "You Gov Poll 2"
Ming 38.7% / Chris 38.3% / Simon 23 %
Hughes 2nd prefs are allocated
RESULT = Ming Win 52.5%
Given that the only poll we've seen published was (for YouGov client and Huhne supporter John Stevens) of voting intentions for the period February 7-9, 2006 and a sample size 401 we think this large telephone canvass poll can not be ignored.
About Yougov Poll 2;
In a departure from normal polling technique the YouGov poll Feb 7-9th asked the key question "how are you intending to cast your first preference vote?" after a full 3 pages of questions about the candidates - which is know to effect results. The question format was selected by the Huhne supporter John Stevens.
Even YouGov's Anthony Wells said himself about the poll that "On general election voting intention questions, it’s normal to have them as the first question (or sometimes the second question after how likely people are to vote) just in case other questions skew the result. Personally, I’d always put it first in polls like this as well..."
We would lay Huhne here at the generous odds available of 1.8. Ming and Huhne's odds should be much closer in our view with Ming slightly ahead.
Interestingly, we've noticed actions in the market that suggest Chris Huhne's supporters are trying to hold his price down to keep him the "bookie's favourite" for publicity reasons. Here's Guido Fawkes with a nice illustration of what we're on about. Enjoy the nice prices provided by those wealthy backers - and don't be put off by the market not moving - just enjoy the value -they can afford it!
Best, Special Bets.
View the best odds on this market here;
Go directly to the Betfair Betting Exchange. Click here
posted by admin@specialbets.com at 2/24/2006 03:58:00 PM
7 Comments:
Has anyone yet seen the results of the Guardian exit poll after the London hustings last night?
Aparently there were 1200 in attendence. Not all members. Only some will have been surveyed by the Grauiad's waiting team. But still should be a good, non-partisan indication.
I haven't seen the results, only saw a blogger saying he had cornered them "in the pub" and was told the results were "interesting but plausible"
They were not asking if people were members (I'm not and they asked me) and I imagine there were a lot of Huhges supporters given the proximity to Bermondsey?
Just come over from pb.c
Your prediction seems close to what I'm hearing. I was interviewed by the guardian on the way out of hustings last night and they *did* ask if I was a member.
anon @ 5.59pm - Huhne's price is clearly being held down by his supporters - they are clearly very keen to keep him as "bookies favourite". Which presents a really unique situation - true value on Betfair! I've layed huhne for my full bank.... loving these prices...
Calm down Rob F! Who asked you?
Mike White was too busy making jokes. I wen back into the lobby and returned and he asked me again!
Perhaps the other Guardianista on the pavement with the specs asked you?
The Guardian exit poll of 422 gave it to Huhne; The Independent poll of 100 at the same event gave it to Campbell.
I didn't realise Huhne supporters were supposed to be keeping his price down. I've put money on the other two...
Will, regarding the Guardian Poll. There were 2 people asking the questions that I saw - Mike White - who was standing outside the main exit door, then if you turned right to leave, a young chap with specs - 10 yards further on on the pavement. Mike White asked me TWICE (I’m not a member). I could have easily made my feeling known 3 times without even trying (2x to Mike and 1x to the chap in the specs). It was chaotic in the lobby of the hall, full of partisan young teams that easily have swung this poll either way.
And as for the Indie poll. The Indie people were not outside, they were sitting in a big group in front of the presenters. Both these polls are worthless, especially given the obvious keeness of some to present ANY piece of information as evidence they are “winning here” !
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